This week, we have identified two favourites that represent poor value, with both facing significant challenges and likely to drift in the market as we approach start time.
At Randwick, a country galloper takes on her first city assignment in a competitive Highway event and the step up in class and circuit looks a genuine test.
Meanwhile at Sandown, the Chris Waller factor appears to have inflated the market for one of his runners, leading to a price that does not reflect her true chance in the race.
Avoid both runners at their current short prices in betting.
Jimmy Beeson continues to nail his lays at a good rate.
Looking for more of his tips? His Early Market Movers drop Friday.
This filly has made solid progress through the grades, winning her past two starts in much weaker country company.
She now steps up to Saturday metro grade in a Highway event that has far more depth.
She has shown good ability at tighter circuits like Wagga and Goulburn, but Randwick’s big track presents a completely different challenge.
The quality of opposition she now faces is a clear step up.
As a horse that likes to race forward, she may find herself exposed early if she lands on speed.
The long Randwick straight is unforgiving, meaning her rivals will have plenty of time to build momentum and run over the top.
This looks a tough task on city debut and I expect her price to drift out beyond $3 as the market adjusts.
Lay.
This runner appears severely over-bet, with the Waller stable’s popularity in Melbourne playing a big role in shaping the early market.
She has been consistent in this preparation placing at all three starts, but now steps back up to Benchmark 78 level, which is clearly a stronger field than she has faced in recent outings.
It’s likely her short quote has been influenced by a high-profile ownership group who are known to wager heavily, which forces the price down.
However, the market impact from that sort of investment is often recreational and not respected by the bookmakers as a key betting signal.
Her current odds look to reflect liability management more than fair probability.
I expect her price to drift late, with $4 or better a realistic chance close to the jump.
Avoid.
Access more betting tips for Saturday racing here.