Rosehill provides a gun card of Group 1 racing on Saturday, highlighted by the Vinery Stud Stakes and H E Tacred which have both attracted high-quality entries from far and wide.
The big Sydney stables will be out to claim the major prizes, however I expect two outsiders to come out on top.
In the Vinery Stud Stakes, I am with a Melbourne raider who appears to be looking for the extra journey out to 2000m and can improve significantly.
Whilst in the Tancred, an intriguing import for the Peter Moody yard presents an excellent betting opportunity at big odds ($17).
The Rosehill track is currently rated a Soft 5, with the rail out 6m for the entire circuit.
Cloudy conditions are predicted for the remainder of the week in Sydney, however a fine day is expected on Saturday.
Expect the track to be worn following the Golden Slipper meeting last week however given the rail is out 6m, the fence and wider should play fair.
As alwaysm refer to the early races for a good guide on track bias.
The Map
There looks to be a lack of genuine tempo here, with Harmony Rose (1) the most likely to kick up from the inside gate to take it up. Love Sensation (4) can push forward to race outside the lead.
Personal (10) and Hungry Heart (5) will be hunting for a midfield position with cover in the moving line and just need a touch of luck to slot in early.
Expect Empicunious (9) will race back in the field however could get a nice tow into it as runners fan wider.
The Favourite
Harmony Rose ($4.60) drops back to girls only grade, however has come up rock-bottom odds in a Group 1 event with plenty of talent elsewhere.
She appeared to have the perfect run in the Randwick Guineas when sitting just in behind the leaders, yet still looked weak late over the final 100m.
She now has to step up to 2000m, where she will need to be much stronger.
The Randwick Guineas form does looks strong, with Mo'unga coming out to win the Rosehill Guineas last weekend. However, I can't get her as short as $2.90 for this.
I'm with Impecunious here, who looks well suited by the added journey now out to 2000m. She was never clear last start, yet still reeled off some good closing sectionals in the Phar Lap. The Damien Oliver booking is an upgrade.
Personal has plenty of quality and is a proven Group 1 stayer after taking out the VRC Oaks (2500m) last campaign.
She has been well supported in betting at her past few over unsuitably short distances. J Mac has jumped off Hungry Heart to ride which appears an excellent lead for punters.
Hungry Heart did race well here last start when winning the Phar Lap stakes over 1500m and could improve again over 2000m.
She appeared to enjoy what developed into a tough test (fast tempo) last time out and could be a good stayer in the making. J Mac jumps off?
Harmony Rose comes out of the Randwick Guineas, which appears to be the good "Mo'unga" form. However, she looked weak late in that race and stepping up to 2000m is not ideal.
She is some chance to improve off the last start run and may be able to run it out this time.
1st Impecunious
2nd Personal
3rd Hungry Heart
4th Harmony Rose
The Map
Expect a moderate tempo early here, with Angel Of Truth (6) and Spirit Ridge (5) to quickly establish themselves as the leading pair before attempting to drop anchor through the mid stages.
Melody Belle (12) and The Chosen One (14) won't want to be too far back from the action, and they should both be searching for midfield moving line positions.
Sir Dragonet (1) and Toffee Tongue (2) both profile to race back along the inside and you can expect them to be keen to use the low draws early, to hold positions just in behind.
The Favourite
Sir Dragonet ($5.50) has been racing well over unsuitably short distances without threatening, and can improve here now out to 2400m.
His price is likely to be artificially compressed due to the Cox Plate heroics, where he did have the perfect run.
No doubt he can run well, however I have a few ahead of him.
Nicajack Cave is an intriguing runner here and has been imported by some heavyweight owners who will expect results.
Peter Moody would not be entering at Group 1 level first-up for the Australian debut if the horse was not flying in trackwork. I'm happy to take the gamble at $17 that he is going well enough and will be somewhere in the finish. Goes on top.
Expect Melody Belle to relish the 2400m returning to Australia as an older mare following three solid hit outs at Group 1 level in New Zealand.
She has plenty of quality and a lethal turn of foot.
Toffee Tongue is highly talented and showed her ability here last start, with a grinding win in the Sky High Stakes.
Expect her to improve again and given the right run just in behind, she should be working home well.
Include Sir Dragonet for wider bet types, as he is proven over these longer trips and does enjoy the softer tracks.
The downside is he will be over-bet due to his high profile.
1st Nickajack Cave
2nd Melody Belle
3rd Toffee Tongue
4th Sir Dragonet