This week, we have identified two favourites who appear severely over-bet and offer no value at their current quotes.
In the Sunshine Coast Guineas, the most popular runner looks to have peaked earlier in the campaign, and with this race appearing to be an afterthought, he may race flat and be over the top.
Meanwhile, at Flemington, a last-start winner now faces a far more challenging speed map from a wide draw, and may struggle to find the right position in the run.
Avoid both runners at their current short prices in betting.
Jimmy Beeson nailed both his Lays last week.
Looking for some of his tips? His Early Market Movers drop Friday & produce plenty of winners.
Warnie has been up for a while, and he was likely trained to peak at one or more earlier starts, rather than here.
This race now shapes as an afterthought and he may be starting to feel the effects of a long campaign.
He was the flashing light run last start at Ipswich, finishing third after being buried back along the inside with no luck.
This column was against him that day due to speed map issues, which again appear relevant.
When horses produce a luckless run, they are often over-bet next start under the assumption that luck will turn.
That seems to be the case here.
This race traditionally attracts a well-set local runner, and while the field may appear thin at first glance, there is likely to be one or two who have been targeted specifically for this race and will be ready to fire.
If the track is favouring up-and-in runners, his price will drift late.
Avoid.
She was dominant last start and the hype is building, but that has now compressed the price to levels that do not represent value.
She was blessed in run on that occasion, enjoying the perfect trip in a forward position before peeling out and winning with ease.
Things may not go so smoothly this time from gate 13, and there are serious speed map concerns.
If Dashing and Magnaspin hold their spots inside her, she could be stuck three wide without cover.
Over-bet due to the recency bias of a flashy win, and now facing a genuinely awkward map, she is a strong risk in a race that has depth and quality elsewhere.
Lay.
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