This week we have identified two popular favourites that the market is in love with due to their recent heroics.
At Rosehill on a bumper Golden Slipper card, the high-profile Private Harry is all the rage yet appears severely over-bet as he steps up from restricted grade to genuine Group 1 level for the first time.
Meanwhile at Moonee Valley, a Ciaron Maher-trained runner who produced a blistering run home last start is also too well found in the market, now facing his first test around the tight-turning Valley circuit.
Avoid both runners at their current short prices in betting.
Jimmy Beeson continues to nail his lays at a good rate.
Looking for more of his tips? His Early Market Movers drop Friday.
This will be Jimmy’s first attempt at the tighter-turning Moonee Valley track, and I doubt he is as well suited here.
His ability to wind up and charge late may be blunted by the circuit, which often favours on-speed runners.
While he was ultra-dominant last start in the Group 1 Oakleigh Plate at Caulfield, this is a completely different set-up.
From gate 2, he is also likely to be buried back along the inside, meaning he will need to either weave through traffic or circle the field from near last—neither of which are attractive prospects at this price.
Additionally, he rises significantly in weight to 58.5kg, a four-kilogram jump from the 54.5kg he carried last start. That added impost could prove telling.
Lay.
The hype around this colt has reached fever pitch, but he is stepping up from a restricted Sunshine Coast Magic Millions slot race.
While he was visually impressive, there are still plenty of unanswered questions as he faces a genuine Group 1 test for the first time.
The speed map looks concerning, with Front Page and Time To Boogie drawn inside and unlikely to give up their positions.
If I Am Me decides to hold the rail from gate 1, Private Harry risks being caught wide.
This is a high-quality Group 1 race featuring battle-hardened competitors who already have proven credentials at this level.
He will need to be exceptionally good to get past some of these.
I expect the bigger betting teams to gap him late in the market, and he looks an excellent risk at the current price.
Avoid.
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