Flemington takes center stage this Saturday with two blockbuster Group 1s, as the All-Star Mile (1600m) and Newmarket Handicap (1200m) headline a massive day of racing.
Despite criticism over its field size, the All-Star Mile has still managed to assemble a high-quality lineup of the country’s top milers, all chasing a $2.5 million prize purse.
Champion Mr Brightside looks to add yet another Group 1 trophy to his already stunning resume, but will face stiff competition from Another Wi and Tom Kitten.
Meanwhile, the Newmarket Handicap boasts a deep field of 15, and while it may lack a true standout sprinter, it remains a punters’ paradise with plenty of value on offer.
Star mare Joliestar is the early $5.00 favourite, but history suggests an upset is on the cards.
With only three favourites winning the Newmarket since 2008, this is a race where taking on the market leader has proven lucrative.
I’m against both favourites in these Group 1 features.
Let’s break down the races and find where the value lies.
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The Flemington surface is currently rated a Good 4, and with warm weather forecasted, expect a firm Good 3 by race time.
The rail moves out to the 5m position (previously 2m), but that shouldn’t significantly impact the way the track plays.
I'm expecting a fair track where tempo and positioning will be the key factors in deciding the results.
No reason he doesn’t beat Mr Brightside again.
The race should play out identically to the C.F. Orr Stakes and this 5YO son of Street Boss should improve further second-up, given he is undefeated (3-0) at this stage of the prep.
With a perfect Flemington record and race fitness on his side, he will be extremely hard to hold out.
Another Wil winning in Sydney
His first-up performance in the Futurity Stakes was enormous.
If he had gotten clear earlier, he probably wins.
With Rise At Dawn stretching the field, Tom Kitten will get the space he needs to launch his devastating final sprint.
He’s the clear danger from the back.
This tough-as-nails gelding is the best value play in the race.
His first-up win over 1400m at Flemington was gutsy, and he’ll strip even fitter second-up.
With 4 wins and 2 placings from 6 second-up starts, he has the right profile to stick on for a top-three finish at big odds.
Forgive his first-up run in the Lightning Stakes.
He did a few things wrong in tricky conditions over 1000m but is much better suited here.
Back up to 1200m on a dry track, he should return to his best—which includes a second in the Manikato and a third in the Coolmore Stud Stakes.
With the race shape suiting him, expect him to unleash a powerful sprint and announce himself as a top 2025 Everest contender.
Her first-up run was disappointing, but if she bounces back to her best, she is right in the mix.
The straight course should suit, and Damian Lane takes the ride, which is a positive switch.
However, the lack of tempo is a concern, and she may have too much ground to make up.
A big bet will be placed on this 5YO gelding, who debuts for the Ciaron Maher stable.
He has immense natural talent, and if Maher has him firing fresh, he could blow this field away.
His Flemington record is strong and $18.00 is simply too big a price for a horse of his class.
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