We head to Flemington on Saturday for a bumper day of racing, highlighted by the Group 1 Australian Guineas where the country's best 3YO's will go toe-to-toe.
The Group 2 Blamey Stakes provides a worthy undercard to the main event. Some classy milers will be on show, and there's a three way battle for favouritism between Godolphin's Best Of Days, Mystic Journey and Star of The Seas.
It shapes as a cracking afternoon as Autumn racing starts to shift into gear.
With clear skies and warm weather forecast across Melbourne on Saturday, expect racing to remain in the Good 4 range for the entire card.
The rail is out 2 metres for this meeting, which will see all runners get their chance in the run.
The Map
This is a tricky race to map.
Buffalo River (6) will press forward from barrier 6 and take up an easy lead under Jamie Kah. From there, Kah can dictate the tempo while the remainder of the field battle it out for positions.
Expect Damien Oliver to carve across from aboard Best Of Days (9) and settle in a more prominent position, while Irish Flame (4) and Mystic Journey (7) round out the leading brigade.
Star Of The Seas (8) draws somewhat awkwardly, but has the tactical speed to muster up and find a midfield position with cover in a race that lacks tempo.
John Allen will have no choice but to roll back to the tail on board Fifty Stars (10), while Brad Parnham can ride Neufbosc (1) cold from the inside.
Analysis and Tips
1st Star Of The Seas $6.00
I'm happy to be with the class in the race here.
Second-up last preparation, he was enormous when finishing second behind stable mate Kolding in the George Main Stakes over the mile.
That performance came after he finished 0.1l lengths second behind superstar mare Verry Elleegant first-up over 1400m in the Winx Stakes.
Barrier 8 for this clash may present some challenges, but I’m confident that Damien Lane can use his initiative to offset the draw by taking up a more forward position off a slow speed.
In doing so, he should be able to cross and find cover slightly forward of midfield.
He clearly grows a leg on a heavy surface, but he’s proven on a dry surface having finished in the money 9 from 13 times on a Good surface.
If he brings his A game, he’s lengths above his opposition.
2nd Buffalo River
The Michael Moroney trained gelding maps to get a soft lead here and can run his rivals into the ground en route to a maiden Group 1 triumph.
He was nailed by the in-form Regardsmaree first-up, but can improve immensely with a run under his belt.
He’s yet to miss the money at four second-up attempts and was Group 1 placed behind Mr Quickie in the Toorak Handicap during the spring at his second run.
While he’s the one to beat, I’m leaning the way of Star Of The Seas on a price perspective.
However, I wouldn’t talk you out of taking the exacta.
3rd Mystic Journey
Betty returns to the scene of her 2019 All-Star Mile triumph after going under twice in Tasmania at $1.18 or less.
The jury remains out on her, but I feel like she has been harshly critiqued by her run in the Group 1 Empire Rose Stakes when heavily supported at this track in the spring.
She was far from a disgraced after finishing 1.4 lengths behind Shout The Bar, and prior to that she returned to the winner's stall over a mile at The Valley in fine fashion.
She looks set to peak here third-up and with race fitness on her side, can make the most of taking up a slightly more forward position.
4th Fifty Stars
He won this race second-up last year when accounting for Secret Blaze and Admirals Joker.
However, this year’s edition is far stronger and he is giving 3kgs or more to Group 1 performed gallopers Mystic Journey, Star Of The Seas and Buffalo River.
Allen will have no choice but to ride him cold from barrier 10 and off a slow tempo, I find it hard to see him getting over the top of the two leading chances.
The Map
There looks plenty of speed on paper in this year's edition of the Australian Guineas.
First emergency, Lofty Star (13), led over 1400m in his last outing and if he gains a start, he'll fight for the lead.
Here To Shock (4) will apply pressure again from the good draw this week, as will Poland (1) and Aysar (2) from the low draws.
Zou Dancer (8), Tagaloa (10) and Jet Propulsion (11) will all push forward from mid-wide draws. It's likely Tagaloa will get the gun run, three or four pairs back in the running line.
Ole Kirk (15) will be restrained to last from the wide draw and will be suited by the strong tempo.
Analysis and Tips
1st Ole Kirk $8.50
Happy to be with the Caulfield Guineas winner here, who is on the back-up after a forgive run in the Futurity.
He’s drawn out in barrier 15 but with plenty of speed engaged, Kerrin McEvoy can take a sit off the speed and produce him out wide.
He’s a winner at this track over 1100 metres on debut and was a good thing beat in the VRC Sires over 1400 metres last autumn.
Now third up, getting to Flemington and stepping out to a mile, I expect significant improvement.
2nd Tagaloa
Could’ve easily had him on top but leant the way of Ole Kirk from a price perspective.
However if you’re looking for a saver bet or to stake the race in two, I would entertain this proven Group 1 performer as your second select.
His win in the CS Hayes here over 1400 metres last fortnight was superb and he now looks like he’ll appreciate every bit of the mile.
He’s drawn nicely in barrier 10 and can press forward to box seat behind the likes of Here To Shock and Zou Dancer. If he handles the trip and gets luck in running, I can’t see him missing the top 4.
3rd Aysar
Slowly becoming a punters nightmare after notching up four consecutive second placings by 1l or less.
He’s proven at a mile finishing second behind Ole Kirk in the Caulfield Guineas and backed that up with a brave second behind Crosshaven in the Carbine Club.
Barrier 2 could present some challenges in a big field but if Lane can find an out in the straight, he’s a genuine winning chance.
4th Zou Dancer
She made the step up from BM70 to Group when winning The Vanity by 4.75l here last fortnight.
However, she will need to go to a new level here against superior opposition at their pet distance after accounting for a field of resuming stayers.
She’s unproven at a mile but the further her last race went on the more it looked like she will handle the trip.
From the midfield draw in barrier 8, she can press forward, land in the box seat and give sight.
For a list of all the tipsters who have posted Flemington tips for Saturday's racing meet, checkout the dedicated page at theGreatTipOff.com.