Flemington plays host to a huge nine-race card this Saturday, with the Group One Black Caviar Lightning headlining the action.
The Chris Waller trained Nature Strip has opened the short-priced $1.55 favourite, with the dual Everest winner Redzel on the third line of betting.
With only 5-10mm of rain forecast in the lead up to Saturday, the track is likely to remain a Good 4 and the rail is in the true position.
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A small field with limited speed engaged will likely set-up for a sit and sprint.
Alligator Blood (1) should land on-pace. Spend (6) has shown early speed and is the only runner likely to contest the lead. Look for Catalyst (8) to take a sit from the widest barrier.
The market has this spot on with two clear-cut winning chances singled out in the market.
Alligator Blood has gone to a new level this prep. His effort to overcome all the distractions in the lead-up to his Magic Millions run which he won in style, was unbelievable.
He sat just off the pace in that race and in the straight, kicked away for his most impressive win to date.
Catalyst is the boom Kiwi three-year-old. You have to take him on face value and on the opinions of those in the know. He is the real deal.
However, he will have to produce something special to upset the Gator.
Dalasan was not at his best first-up in the Manfred Stakes, although he's only finished out of the placings once in his career. I expect him to bounce back here and he's clear third-pick.
1st Alligator Blood
2nd Catalyst
3rd Dalasan
Redzel (1) and Nature Strip (5) will contest the lead, with second-favourite Loving Gaby (6) likely to sit mid-field with cover.
Nature Strip is four-from-four down the Flemington straight and has won six from nine over the 1000m.
His trials suggest he's come back in fine order and if his Everest run is anything to go off, he'll jump, lead and prove too speedy for this field.
Redzel’s best form nowadays is on soft to heavy tracks, but he can never be underestimated. He'll sit on-pace and should be able to hold on for second.
Loving Gaby is a class act. She's better suited over the 1200m, but with plenty of speed on she'll be the one flying late.
Her win in the Manikato Stakes when beating the older horses, was exceptional. If she's improved off her spell, she'll be in for a huge prep.
1st Nature Strip (Best Bet)
2nd Redzel
3rd Loving Gaby
Lady D’oro (1), Meuse (5), Fascino (7) and Bonvicini (8) will all push forward here.
There is very little between the top rated horses in this race.
The form-lines of Pretty Brazen are strong. Her win last start over Conqueror in the Sandown Guineas was excellent.
He run two starts back at this track and distance was impressive, when she made up significant ground from back in the field and did everything but win.
From a better draw in barrier six this time, she can sit mid-field with cover and show her enormous turn of foot late.
Fascino is in rare form. Her second in the Group 2 Edward Manifold Stakes at Flemington last prep reads well for this. She can lead or take a sit and should be in the finish.
The Sydney filly Katalin has been very impressive in her two wins to date. She put them away with ease last start and whilst this is a big step-up in class, she can make the leap.
1st Pretty Brazen
2nd Fascino
3rd Katalin