On Derby Day we potted Octane at the $2.80 short quote, when the horse was never sighted and saved the blushes of punters who follow this column.
For Cup Day, we have found another Flemington runner that looks well under the odds as he tackles the Flemington straight again and appears unsuited by the low draw.
At Randwick, a skinny priced three-year-old colt faces a tough task to reel in the leaders off an expected slow tempo.
He will be short across all totes due to the Godolphin factor and being the first favourite of the day, hence is likely to be artificially compressed from a price angle.
The debut win here at Flemington was good, however he was soft in the market ($9 out to $12) and not expected to race that well which indicates he is no superstar.
On Derby Day, the inside section of the track appeared to be least preferred for straight racing with the last winner (Fiesta) coming down the outside.
If this pattern plays out again on Tuesday, this horse will be unsuited by the inside draw in gate 2.
I expect a significant market drift late and for a wave of money to arrive for Marine One. Lay.
Looks a good colt, however surely the poison $2.40 must be avoided at his first try out to 1800m.
He won at Kembla last start when racing well back in the field, before charging late.
However, that was against a rubbish field in maiden grade and this is a big step-up in class.
He is likely to race back in the field as per his normal pattern and I expect them to crawl here, with an advantage for those sprinting off the front.
There is certainly enough against to be risking him at the skinny odds on this occasion. Avoid.