It’s well and truly Christmas for punters now as we enter the final straight of this year’s Spring racing season and pin our ears back for the four-day Flemington Melbourne Cup carnival. We kick things off on Saturday with Australia’s most prestigious day of racing, Derby Day, which features nine Group races headlined by the $1.5M Group One VRC Derby.
The thickness of Saturday's Flemington form guide resembles a novel filled with no less than 135 horses spread across nine races which averages 15 runner fields. Punters have had their backs against the wall this Spring due to thumping dividends throughout the carnival with the average price of Group One winners paying $16.70 and blowing out to $20.10 when you exclude Winx’s unbackable odds in the Turnbull and Cox Plate.
This trend looks likely to continue on Saturday with no runner in the final five races below $5. The deep and competitive fields will cause plenty of headaches for punters who will be hard pressed to stand out a single runner to carry their hard-earned.
With these stats in mind we'll be placing multiple bets in each race, with our most favoured play the Quadrella. If you’re going to pull off a Qauddie there is no better day to do it than Derby Day with last year’s pay-out just over $32K and then $12.5K the year before.
Our team of analysts have set out to navigate the minefield of the Derby Day Quaddie in an attempt to give you the best chance of getting a slice of this year’s pie.
#5 Silent Sedition - put in two solid runs this preparation as she works up nicely to the mile. Has good third-up form and well drawn for a nice sit in the running. Jumped from a very wide gate at Caulfield on one of the toughest courses for that draw and was forced to race wide for the journey. Right in this red hot race. $8.50
#8 Dixie Blossoms- fourth in the same race last year and is a much better horse now. Strong 1600m form should see her giving this a shake. $11
#3 Foxplay - had an impressive run in the Epsom before stepping back to 1400m last start which did her no favours. Has been in good company this preparation finishing 0.2L behind Winx in the Warwick Stakes. $8.50
#1 Flying Jess - has been building nicely for this with a strong finish in her last start at 1600m beating home Prompt Response. Drawn wide but if she can find her way in-field, she'll be hitting the line well. Good roughie inclusion. $26
Matt Buckland's Selection
#16 Shoals - what a beauty she is, just finished behind Aloisia last time out and that form has been franked. She will go very close here. $5.00
#3 Astoria - has put in a solid preparation. Raced wide without cover when finishing 3.9L behind Ace High then put in a solid sustained run carrying weight at his latest outing. Makes a good case. $9.50
#6 Sully - expecting a bit of pace in this race with up to six runners likely to be pressing forward. This sort of race pattern will set up perfect conditions for Sully who is crying out for 2500m after recording the fastest closing sectionals at his recent outing over 2000m in the G1 Champion Stakes. $8.50
#12 Greycliffe - latest win at Seymour by 4L over 2200m suggests he will relish the extra ground. Looks like he has a big future. $10
#7 Weather With You - reacted well to blinkers last start in a tough win at Geelong. Drawn well again here and distance won't be an issue. $7.50
Matt Buckland's Selection
#1 Ace High - was brilliant in the Gloaming and the Spring Champion stakes and looks like he will eat up the distance. Will be on the speed and will give you a sight from the perfect draw. $5.00 Fixed Odds
#1 Tosen Stardom - relished the mile in the Toorak last start and showed good turn of foot. Up for this. $6
#10 Sovereign Nation - couldn't catch Tosen Stardom last start in the Toorak but will be fitter for that run. Likes the Flemington track and drawn well. $9
#1 Radipole - plenty to like about his latest effort. Wide throughout and strong finish to just miss winning the Seymour Cup in listed grade. Expect further improvement third-up. Can make his presence felt in a competitive race. $16
#12 All Our Roads - third run into his preparation now and gets his preferred distance as well as a favourable weight drop. Have to include. $12
Matt Buckland's Selection
#9 Shillelagh - was flying at them late last time out, another 100m that day and she wins. She gets an extra 200m here which could be just what she needs. $13
#2 Keen Array - fought hard last start carrying a big weight. Gets some weight relief here and has won down the Flemington straight. $14
#7 Miss Rock - flashed home in the Caulfield Sprint last start. Looked like she wanted the extra 200m on offer here. Go well. $15
#8 Bons Away - impressive win at Caulfield two starts back beating home Brave Smash. Spent a bit in the running at his recent outing. In this if he settles. $10
#11 Rich Charm- a gritty win last start where he edged home in front of Keen Array. Unbeaten from two third-up starts and proven up the Flemington straight. Has to go in. $5.50
Matt Buckland's Selection
#9 Ravi - has come back in brilliant form, a nice run behind Savanna Amour where she ran on strongly. Draws to do no work and may go forward giving them something to chase. $7