Royal Randwick hosts a big day of racing on Saturday, highlighted by the Group 1 Spring Champion Stakes for the three-year-olds over 2000m.
The feature event is well supported by the Group 2 Roman Consul, Group 2 Stan Fox and of course the Silver Eagle.
Track Conditions
The track is currently rated a Good 4 and there is little to no rain around. You can expect the track to play fast and in pristine condition.
The Randwick rail will be in the 5m position, which should ensure a fair track with those off the rail likely to be in the better ground.
The Map
I'm expecting the pace in this race to be above average, with Vangelic (5) and Ellsberg (6) making use of their decent barriers and going into a forward position.
Triple Ace (12) will attempt to push up and get into a nice position and will likely get Tramonto (11) to follow across.
Count De Rupee (8) will look to sit just off the front runners, with Kiku (3), Exoboom (2) and High Supremacy (1) trying to kick up and hold decent midfield positions.
Prime Star (14), Sammy (10) and Blondeau (9) will have some important decisions to make. Expect them to settle midfield or worse throughout, with the rest of the field settling behind them.
The Favourite
Ellsberg ($6.50) and Count De Rupee ($6.50) have opened up joint favourites in a wide-open affair.
Ellsberg is coming off a brilliant first-up run, where he was too good for his rivals whilst carrying top weight.
He'll get some nice favours due to his racing pattern and although he is a horse that loves this track and distance, his second-up record isn't the greatest. However, he gets a chance to improve on that here.
Count De Rupee has a much better second-up record than his rival, though he is yet to do it against this type of opposition.
The Real Impact gelding was very good first-up on his home track and will relish the fast conditions. It wouldn't surprise to see him in the finish, but I think he has to prove himself here.
Analysis and Tips
High Supremacy ($13.00) is one I really like at terrific each-way odds.
He was mighty impressive first-up at this track, where he was restrained from an awkward barrier before Nash Rawiller took the short way home.
He was met with a wall of horses about 250m out but once he got clear air, it was game over as he cruised past the line by just over half a length.
It was a good return and the clock backed it up. He was one of three winners on the day to finish in the top 10 for final 400m splits and one of four winners to finish in the top 10 for final 200m.
The 100m drop back in distance shouldn't worry him and his second-up record is fair. He loves Randwick and he will appreciate the conditions at hand.
The Map
Fresh off her Flight Stakes win, expect Never Been Kissed (8) to stride forward and be in a handy position with Chill (3), Inverell (13), French Emperor (11) and Profondo (10) attempting to find a handy spot.
Bulloo (5) has generally been racing on-speed, so expect her to apply early pressure, whilst Patton (1) and Raging Bull (4) settle midfield or better.
Expect the others to settle midfield or worse.
The Favourite
Profondo ($3.40) is the favourite of this race after his grand effort last start.
The Deep Impact colt ran a bold race in the Gloaming Stakes, but his bad manners and inexperience proved costly as he went down a length in second to rival Head of State.
His figures have been good and even though he's had a boom on him since day 1, he's only been let down by his inexperience.
I was looking for a slight gear change to help him coming into this race, but that hasn't eventuated so you have to back him on ability alone.
He can win this race but he has to do everything right.
Analysis and Tips
Head of State ($4.20) was awesome at Rosehill, proving too good for his rivals over the 1800m.
He beat main rival Profondo by half a length, whilst slaughtering the rest of the field by almost 4 lengths. He'll relish the extra 200m and his racing pattern is going to be suited by this nice Randwick track.
I'm expecting a similar ride by James McDonald and providing he gets even luck, he will be hard to beat.
Bulloo ($26.00) is the other I want to speck at decent odds. Outside the top 5 in the market, there is a long tail in this race but I think she should be a lot closer than her price suggests.
She led two starts ago in a Quality race at Doomben, where she went forward thanks to her barrier. She fought on well to finish 3 lengths off Startantes, in what was a verygame run.
She then stepped up to a mile at Toowoomba in the Guineas, where she settled fifth in the running before storming home to win by 2 lengths.
She is drawn to get a magical run throughout and the 2000m looks as though it will suit her.
I think she can run a big race at odds and I would be specking her more to place with a small wager on her to win.