Caulfield Guineas Day is sure to have punters up and about this Saturday, with a huge card of Group 1 racing including the time honoured Toorak Handicap.
I'm with the Anthony and Sam Freedman's gun 3YO in the Guineas, whilst in the Toorak I have found a Nick Ryan runner at good odds.
The late betting moves promise to be intriguing!
Track Conditions
The Caulfield track is currently rated a Soft 5, with the rail in the True position for the entire circuit.
Showers are predicted for the remainder of the week and on Saturday in Melbourne.
Caulfield can play to those drawn wider and finding the moving line with cover.
As always refer to the early races for a good guide on track bias.
The Map
The speed looks moderate here, with Lightsabre (11) the most likely to take it up at an even tempo. That being said, if there is no genuine speed expected, a few of these could change tactics and attempt to race closer.
Expect Captivant (14) and Giannis (6) to receive gun runs just in behind.
The two fancied runners Anamoe (15) and Artorius (2) are likely to race back in the field and come with a late rush.
The Favourite
Anamoe ($2.70) is clearly all class and was the dominant 2YO last season.
He has returned very well as a 3YO and won first-up before only just missing in the Group 1 Golden Rose Stakes last start, as the short ($1.85) priced favourite.
He is now well exposed to the market and the price is no spoil, however he must be included in everything.
I'm leaning toward Artorius here at the price ($4.00), where he possibly has more improvement to come when lined up against the favourite Anamoe.
He draws soft in gate 2 and should receive every chance Damien Lane aboard.
Anamoe is all class and quality and if the breaks come for him after launching from gate 15, expect him to be in the finish.
I'm not too sure what the bookies will look to do from here, however expect a few of them to take him on late, at the short price.
Lightsabre had a big boom on him as a 2YO and did win the Guineas Prelude at this track over 1400m last start.
He is the likely leader and with a few of the more fancied rivals being "get back" horses, he could pull their pants down from out in front.
The Snowden's have always had a big opinion of Captivant and are a gun camp at getting these high-priced colts to stud.
They will have him cherry ripe and know exactly what they are doing here. Beware.
1st Artorius
2nd Anamoe
3rd Lightsabre
4th Captivant
The Map
Expect good speed here early, with both Second Slip (2) and So You Assume (9) the most likely to press for the lead.
Others that will also look to apply early pressure include Elephant (5) and Aysar (7).
I'm Thunderstruck (4) and Superstorm (10) should both find themselves well back and covered up for one run at them late.
The Favourite
I'm Thunderstruck is racing in great form and should have won last start after getting well back in the Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes (3 of 16)
If they ride a touch closer on this occasion, he could do it easy. However, expect them to stick to the same get well back pattern.
Given any luck here, he will be charging at them late.
I'm with Dice Roll, who is racing in great heart and is right up to these top-line Group 1 horses.
He was very brave last start when placing 2 of 12 in the Sir Rupert Clarke after a torrid run deep with no cover.
Given any luck here, he can explode.
I'm Thunderstruck simply got too far back last start and then was bumped at a vital stage.
He is another quality runner who will be mowing them all down late, given a clear crack at them.
So You Assume has won her past three starts in weaker grade, but does have the ability to be competitive in this. She maps beautifully from gate 9 and has plenty of options with her tactical speed.
Sierra Sue is simply flying and just needs to hold form to be highly competitive here. From gate 11, Daniel Moor can find the moving line with cover, before launching at just the right time.
1st Dice Roll
2nd I'm Thunderstruck
3rd So You Assume
4th Sierra Sue