Derby Day is "The Day" for high quality racing in Australia, with the Group One action across the card presenting an absolute spoil for punters.
In the Empire Rose Stakes for fillies and mares, I am with a gun mare who looks to be far more seasoned than the favourite who I am keen to take on.
Whilst in the Coolmore I'm expecting a warp speed tempo, and for a number of back-markers (at big odds) to get home hard over the top.
I'll be looking to back run-on profiles throughout the day, as this track set up with wet conditions has historically favoured horses in midfield or worse running positions.
The Flemington track is currently rated a Good 4 and the rail is in the True position for the entire circuit.
With rain predicted in the back end of the week in Melbourne, expect a track downgrade come race day.
After reviewing last year's Derby Day which had similar conditions, horses that launched from a midfield or worse position held an advantage. Leaders appeared to struggle on this card last year.
Watch early for any bias and bet accordingly.
There looks to be good speed here with the a few noted front runners drawn wide, who should be looking to carve across early.
These include Forbidden Love (14), Shout The Bar (11) and Felicia (10), with the latter likely to win the early battle and lead.
Expect both Mystic Journey (5) and Pretty Brazen (6) to find the premier positions midfield with cover and from there, they both look very well suited.
The run-on profiles from midfield and further back certainly hold an advantage here, and the best from the tail looks to be Missile Mantra (9) at big odds ($26).
Odeum ($3.40) won the Thousand Guineas last start in great style and now takes on the older "hard head" mares.
I am inclined to be against her here especially from a price angle, where she jumped at $9 last start against her own age and now we are being asked to take $3.80 against the older horses.
Granted she does drop way down in weight to 49kg, however this is a deep field with more proven quality than the Thousand Guineas.
The afterthought factor is also high, as last start was almost sure to be her grand final target. Avoid.
I'm strongly in the corner of gun mare Mystic Journey, who oozes quality and maps perfectly here. Clear on top pick.
Pretty Brazen is another with plenty of quality and off the hot tempo should also receive every chance from a midfield position with cover.
Chica Fuerte can have the drop on the first pair in running, and just needs a touch of luck from the wide draw (gate 13) to come across and take a position.
If they go absolutely mad up front, Missile Mantra could be the one storming home over the top of them all late. She has not been far away in Group level at her past two starts and is right in this. Big odds.
1st Mystic Journey
2nd Pretty Brazen
3rd Chica Fuerte
4th Missile Mantra
This is a high quality Group One sprint down the famed Flemington straight, therefore you can expect a very strong tempo throughout.
Farnan (10) loves to lead and you can expect him to be charging out early to take it up.
Others who will be close to speed include Hollyfield and Anders, who will both be up there keeping Farnan honest through the mid-stages.
I expect the back-marker profiles to be well suited in this. These include Doubtland (1), Ranting (8) and Muntaseera (6), who will all relish the strong tempo and be charging at the leaders late.
September Run ($4.20) could not have been more impressive winning here last start, when she flew late and was very dominant through the line.
This is a much deeper race and although she is very smart and has the right map, the current odds do look skinny.
No doubting the above average ability this filly possesses, however I'll be betting around her on this occasion. Prefer others.
Doubtland gets the strong tempo to suit and has plenty of X factor.
He already has a win down the straight and the stable have a huge opinion of him. Looks huge overs at the current $17.
A truckload of money arrived ($4.20 into $3.30) late for Muntaseera last time at Caulfield, where she was brave (2 of 8) behind Swats That.
She appears much better suited here off a faster tempo and could improve significantly.
Ranting won the high quality three-horse race at Caulfield last start, beating both Anders and Hanseatic.
He is another that will relish the fast speed and be storming late from a midfield or worse position. He's rock hard fit now and can be last man standing.
Must include Swats That who did beat Muntaseera last start, however was suited on that occasion by a slower tempo.
She will be lurking just in behind the lead.
1st Doubtland
2nd Muntaseera
3rd Ranting
4th Swats That
For a list of all the tipsters who have posted Flemington tips for Saturday's racing meet, checkout the dedicated page at theGreatTipOff.com.