Cox Plate

The 100th running of the Cox Plate presents as a wide open affair and one of the most exciting edition in years. We get to see high quality international raiders, Armory, Sir Dragonet and Aspeter facing off against local stars Arcadia Queen and Russian Camelot. Boom three-year-old colt Grandslam brings plenty of intrigue into the race and will be looking to replicate Shamus Award's front running victory in 2013 carrying just 49.5kg. The chances don’t end there.  Can Master Of Wine bounce back off his disappointing Caulfield Cup run and finally live up to his potential? Or, can Humidor produce one of racing’s greatest comeback stories and go one better than 2017 when he gave Winx an almighty scare?   Track Conditions The rail has been set in the true position for Saturday, which will provide all runners a fair crack.  The only concern is the current weather forecast, which is predicting 15-25mm rain on Friday (Manikato Stakes night) and 10-25mm on Cox Plate day. With 16 races being run prior to the Cox Plate, expect the track to be chopped up and riders looking to move off the fence. The forecasts have been wrong in recent weeks, but if the heavens open we could see racing in the Heavy 9 and 10 range come Saturday afternoon. The wet conditions will find plenty of horses out and I suspect Arcadia Queen to be the drifter if that unfolds.   Moonee Valley Race 9 - Cox Plate 2040m (G1) The Map  There's no genuine speed engaged, which will see Jye McNeil press forward on Grandslam (5) from the nice draw and use his light weight in an attempt to steal the race from the front. Expect Magic Wand (4) and Master Of Wine (1) to settle in behind the speed from their low draws to box seat and get the runs of the race, while Kolding (10) and Probabeel (2) can settle midfield. With a lack of speed here, the map gets muddier and leading chances Arcadia Queen (8), Aspeter (3) and Sir Dragonet (7) can lob just off midfield while favourite Russian Camelot (15) will be forced to the rear from the far outside draw. The leading international in the market, Armory (6), maps to be ridden cold and will need plenty of luck in transit off the slow speed. The same goes for the old marvel, Humidor (14).   Analysis & Tips  1st Sir Dragonet $13.00 Happy to be with the Maher & Eustace trained international in his first start on Australian soil, after a recent second behind star European galloper, Magical. While he’s finished runner-up in his last four starts as a short favourite, he’s been far from disgraced and has made a mockery of the short-priced Armory while carrying significant weight What stands out for me is his fifth placed effort in last year’s Epsom Derby, when he was a beaten favourite behind Caulfield Cup runner up Anthony Van Dyck (0.5 lengths). If the rain comes, he’ll only grow a leg and with Boss on board from barrier 7 he can sit midfield and grind the leaders down late with clear air at the top of the straight.   2nd Grandslam $19 I was initially sceptical of the three-year-old getting a run in the race ahead of Buckhurst, but the more I dissect this race the more I keep warming to the lightly raced colt. With only 49.5kg on his back and a strong run behind star juvenile Ole Kirk in the Caulfield Guineas, he clearly has the ability to measure up here. There’s no doubt in my mind that he isn’t up to the calibre of last year’s runner-up Castelvecchio, but this race doesn’t have star Japanese mare Lys Gracieux. With very little speed engaged, I expect him to get an easy time of it up front. If there was a market for who’s leading at the top of the straight, this horse would be odds-on and don’t be surprised if he kicks and keeps kicking.   3rd Russian Camelot $4.80 The spruik horse of the year and despite being shown up by Arcadia Queen last start at $1.50, I expect a bounce back here. Danny O’Brien says he isn’t concerned by the wide draw, but deep down he knows it will be the deciding factor. He may just be too good, but he’s no So You Think despite many drawing comparisons.  With little speed engaged, he faces an uphill task from the rear.     4th Probabeel $8.50 She’s been set for this race and will be peaking fourth-up and stepping up to 2040m. The in-form Kerrin McEvoy is engaged to ride and from the inside draw, she maps to get an economical run with cover but will need luck when the whips get cracking. Follow @jackson_frantz1

1. KOLDING (NZ) 5 year old bay gelding (3-11-2015) Sire: Ocean Park (NZ) Dam: Magic Star Trainer: Chris Waller (Flemington) Jockey: James McDonald 59kg Barrier:10 Record: 24:10-2-3 Prizemoney:$5,897,650 Manley says... He has returned to the awesome form he displayed last spring with successive weight-for-age wins at Randwick. His latest came in the Hill Stakes where he defeated Avilius and Fierce Impact. He failed in two Melbourne runs in the autumn but both were on rock hard tracks. He’s the hardest horse to assess.     2. HUMIDOR (NZ)  8 year old bay gelding (14-9-2012) Sire: Teofilo (IRE) Dam: Zalika (NZ) Trainer: Chris Waller (Flemington) Jockey: Craig Williams 59kg Barrier:14 Record: 45:9-8-6 Prizemoney:$4,404,315   Manley says... Chris Waller has somehow rejuvenated this horse's career which looked over. He loves this track and has the distinction of being the only horse to have challenged Winx in a Cox Plate, when he finished second in 2017. He’ll be ridden for luck and look for him to be storming home. Great addition for multiples such as trifecta and first four. Best long shot.     3. FIERCE IMPACT (JPN)   7 year old bay horse (6-3-2014) Sire: Deep Impact (JPN) Dam: Keiai Gerbera (JPN) ( Smarty Jones (USA) Trainer: Matthew Smith (Warwick Farm) Jockey: Luke Currie 59kg Barrier:12 Record: 28:6-6-6 Prizemoney:$3,235,830   Manley says... Solid Sydneysider who has been set for this. Gave away a start last time when third behind Kolding and Avillius in the Hill Stakes when he stepped back out to 2000m. Before that he won the Makybe Diva Stakes. His best form is over 1600 metres. He’ll be around the placings.     4 MASTER OF WINE (GER)  6 year old bay gelding (13-4-2015) Sire: Maxios (GB) Dam: Magma (GER) ( Dubai Destination (USA)) Trainer: Michael, Wayne & John Hawkes (Flemington) Jockey: Michael Rodd 59kg Barrier:1 Record: 19:5-5-2 Prizemoney:$718,609   Manley says... Didn’t fire in last week’s Caulfield Cup but worked on the speed and weakened. Previous form puts him around the mark for this and best form is at 2000m. He would need a lot of things to go his way to win this though.     5 MUGATOO (IRE) 6 year old bay gelding (20-2-2015) Sire: Henrythenavigator (USA) Dam: Elopa (GER) ( Tiger Hill (IRE)) Trainer: Kris Lees (Newcastle) Jockey: John Allen 59kg Barrier:9 Record: 15:8-2-1 Prizemoney:$708,392   Manley says... He just failed to make it four in a row when touched off by Mirage Dancer in the closing stages of The Metropolitan. He has astute owners but he doesn’t look well placed in this.     6 ASPETAR (FR) 6 year old bay or brown gelding (28-2-2015) Sire: Al Kazeem (GB) Dam: Bella Qatara (IRE) ( Dansili (GB)) Trainer: Roger Charlton (Wiltshire (GB)) Jockey: Damian Lane 59kg Barrier:3 Record: 13:5-2-2 Prizemoney:$489,820   Manley says... Comfortable win in the York Stakes at his last start when he came from well back to win over 2062 metres. He has won three of his last six and is in a top stable. Well beaten in the Hong Kong Vase late last year over 2400m at Sha Tin though.     7 SIR DRAGONET (IRE) 5 year old bay horse (9-2-2016) Sire: Camelot (GB) Dam: Sparrow (IRE) (Oasis Dream (GB)) Trainer: Ciaron Maher & David Eustace (Caulfield) Jockey: Glen Boss 59kg Barrier:7 Record: 9:2-4-0 Prizemoney:$391,570   Manley says... Former Aidan O’Brien trained galloper now with Ciaron Maher and David Eustace, He’s been a model of consistency with four seconds in a row in top class races. A repeat of his last start second behind Magical in the Gold Cup at Curragh should have him in the finish.     8 MAGIC WAND (IRE) 6 year old bay mare (13-3-2015) Sire: Galileo (IRE) Dam: Prudenzia (IRE) (Dansili (GB)) Trainer: Aidan O'Brien (Co. Tipperary (IRE)) Jockey: Mark Zahra 57kg Barrier:4 Record: 28:4-9-2 Prizemoney:$6,663,053   Manley says... Tough Irish mare who always gives her all but lacks a knock-out punch at this level. She finished fourth in the race last year when she led and was out sprinted. Arguably this isn’t as strong and she has the services of the in-form Mark Zahra. Looks over the odds.     9 ARCADIA QUEEN 5 year old bay mare (19-10-2015) Sire: Pierro Dam: Arcadia (Redoute’s Choice) Trainer: Grant & Alana Williams (Karnup) Jockey: William Pike 57kg Barrier:8 Record: 13:7-1-2 Prizemoney:$2,496,035   Manley says... Freakish Perth mare who returned to her best form when she sailed past Russian Camelot to win the Caulfield Stakes, a race which was a sprint home. She managed to produce the fastest last 200m for the meeting, running home in 11.43 seconds. She’ll be the sixth mare in a row if successful. Middle barriers have a great record.     10 NETTOYER 7 year old bay mare (23-11-2013) Sire: Sebring Dam: Cleanup (Dehere (USA)) Trainer: Wendy Roche (Warwick Farm) Jockey: Billy Egan 57kg Barrier:13 Record: 34:6-2-6 Prizemoney:$1,708,700   Manley says... She would be the fairy tale winner but looks well out of her depth. She’s had one start at this track and distance for an easy win last year.     11 RUSSIAN CAMELOT (IRE) 4 year old bay or brown horse (29-3-2017) Sire: Camelot (GB) Dam: Lady Babooshka (GB) ( Cape Cross (IRE)) Trainer: Danny O'Brien (Flemington) Jockey: Damien Oliver 56.5kg Barrier:15 Record: 8:4-3-0 Prizemoney:$1,091,225   Manley says... No more exciting proposition in Australian racing. He was left a sitting duck in the Caulfield Stakes for Arcadia Queen to run him down as he was left in front in the slowly run affair a long way out. From his outside draw, Oliver will go back and ride him patiently which will suit him better. He’s going to be hard to hold out. Loves it wet.     12 ARMORY (IRE) 4 year old bay horse (8-1-2017) Sire: Galileo (IRE) Dam: After (IRE) (Danehill Dancer (IRE)) Trainer: Aidan O'Brien (Co. Tipperary (IRE)) Jockey: Ben Melham 56.5kg Barrier:6 Record: 11:4-2-3 Prizemoney:$691,211   Manley says... On his last start in the Irish Champion Stakes he’s the horse to beat as no other galloper in this race boast that level of form. On that occasion he finished third behind two of the world’s best horses in Magical & Ghaiyyath and he defeated subsequent Arc winner Sotass. Loves the soft.     13 PROBABEEL (NZ)  4 year old bay mare (6-11-2016) Sire: Savabeel Dam: Far Fetched (NZ) ) Trainer: Jamie Richards (Matamata (NZ)) Jockey: Kerrin McEvoy 55.5kg Barrier:2 Record: 18:8-6-0 Prizemoney:$2,371,478   Manley says.. Super Kiwi mare who stormed home to win the Epsom in quick time. The majority of the times she's suffered defeat there has been an excuse. From barrier two McEvoy will have her in a good spot throughout.     14 GRANDSLAM 3 year old bay colt (25-8-2017) Sire: Myboycharlie (IRE) Dam: Mine Game ( General Nediym Trainer: Ciaron Maher & David Eustace (Caulfield) Jockey: Jye McNeil 49.5kg Barrier:5 Record: 6:1-1-1 Prizemoney:$224,890   Manley says..  He’s showing a lot of potential, will carry a featherweight and should lead, but I doubt he’s good enough to win.     15 BUCKHURST (IRE) 5 year old bay horse (7-3-2016) Sire: Australia (GB) Dam: Artful (IRE) ( Green Desert (USA)) Trainer: Joseph O'Brien (Co. Kilkenny (IRE)) Jockey: Jamie Kah 59kg Barrier:11 Record: 11:4-3-0 Prizemoney:$383,681   Manley says.. He’s been well held in both of his Group One assignments including last week’s Caulfield Cup. Jame Kah would have to produce some magic here.     History says Mares are having a great run having won the last five but four of them belonged to Winx and last year was Lys Gracieux. Could Arcadia Queen follow in her footsteps.   Speed Grandslam and Magic Wand are the likely leaders. Going to be a battle of tactics after that. Look for Damien Oliver to ease Russian Camelot back at the start and wait to make a sweeping run around the field.   Tips Russian Camelot Arcadia Queen Armory Magic Wand Best roughie: Humidor

Date 24th October 2020 Distance 2040m Grade Group 1 Track  Moonee Valley Prize money $5,000,000 Class WFA 2019 winner Lys Gracieux ($2.50) Contested over 2040m at Moonee Valley, the Cox Plate is renowned as Australia's weight-for-age championship.  The illustrious Group One scalp with it's $5 million purse attracts the best Australian middle distance and staying talent and in recent years, international raiders from across the globe.  With just over four weeks until the time honoured clash, we talk to David Gately and Michael Gannon to get their early predictions for the race.    Cox Plate: Horses to follow   Gator says... ARCADIA QUEEN There is no doubt based on her Kingstown Town Classic win last December that she is an absolute star. The times she ran that day were phenomenal. Last prep she returned in good fashion, then followed up with two forgive runs in the Everest and the Golden Eagle. Her effort fresh in the Group 2 PB Lawrence was a pass mark on a Soft Caulfield track in a slowly run race.  Staying at 1400m second-up in the Let's Elope, she returned to form on a Good 4 and looks back on track. She charged home for second late in that clash, recording a 33.08 / 11.20 last 600m / 200m. She's building towards this nicely.    VERRY ELLEEGANT Currently, she is the best athlete and number one seed given this is weight-for-age. I get the feeling from what I saw in the Winx Stakes that they may target this race now, before heading into a Melbourne Cup. The other thing that the first-up 1400m win tells us, is that she is brilliant enough to win a Cox Plate. In the George Main Stakes on Saturday, she had enough tempo in the race but simply lacked that dash we saw a fortnight earlier. Perhaps that tough first-up run saw her a bit 'flat' and the bone-dry track could have gone against her also. Either way, she ran well and her 11.92 home was the second fastest of the race which indicates she was warming-up nicely late. SUPERSTORM My smoky. He has a big Group One in him this prep. I imagine the Golden Eagle is on their radar with the $7.5 million lure, as he is only a four-year-old once. However, that race is 1500m. We saw him run off his feet over 1600m in a very fast All-Star Mile then zoom home. His fresh run finishing 1.85 lengths 9th in The Heath was great and then he followed that up with an unlucky 3.2 length 12th in the Sir Rupert Clarke on Saturday. He looked to be building momentum in that race beautifully and actually ran up alongside the winner at the 250m mark, before his luck run out. He was 5th fasted home (11.8) without being tested. For mine, the 2040m in October is right up his alley!   Gannon says... FIERCE IMPACT He was great winning the Group 1 Makybe Diva Stakes second-up and looks set for a tilt at the Caulfield Stakes on October 10th.  The 2040m is right at the end of his distance range, but I think he'll handle it.  Considering we could be without the influx of foreign talent this year, this could be the best opportunity for a horse like Fierce Impact to claim the coveted honour.   HUNGRY HEART Holds a nomination and looks like she could run all day. She's been a little dour in her two runs back and it wouldn't surprise me if Waller has her set for the Cox Plate. Time will tell, but if she wins the Spring Champion Stakes don't be surprised to see her line up and be competitive in the Cox Plate.   2020 Cox Plate All-In market (Snapshot) RUNNER WIN $ Russian Camelot 6.00 Armory 12.00 Sir Dragonet 12.00 Verry Elleegant 13.00 Aspetar 14.00 Arcadia Queen 15.00 Fierce Impact 15.00 Magic Wand 15.00 Master Of Wine  19.00 Humidor 21.00 Surprise Baby 21.00 Behemoth 26.00 Buckhurst 26.00 Flying Award 26.00 Japan 26.00 Probabeel 31.00 Avilius 34.00 Dalasan 34.00 Funstar 34.00 Kings Will Dream 34.00 Superstorm 51.00 Hungry Heart 101.00

Cox Plate day at Moonee Valley is always a spoil of betting opportunity for punters. Whilst the main event lacks Winx this year, the full fields, wide markets and keen interest from punters should see greater turnover than previous years.  The Cox Plate is well supported by a number of stakes races, with punters again forced to line-up the recent form in both Sydney and Melbourne. A classy Sydney three-year-old looks to have a stranglehold on the Vase, and appears the best bet of the day to my eye.    Race 6 Moonee Valley Vase (Group 2 3yo SW) 2040m The speed looks slow here, in a race that is likely to develop into a sprint home.  Expect Battenburg (2) to use the good draw to punch up and lead or sit outside the front runner. He was good running 3 of 11 in the Spring Champion Stakes behind two very smart ones in Shadow Hero and Castelvecchio. His class should prevail.  With only a slow tempo, Moonlight Maid (7) can roll forward to midfield in the running line. She just needs to be in touch with the leaders at the 600m in order to sprint with them.  Soul Patch (9) comes out of the Group 1 Caulfield Guineas, where he was unsuited by the wide draw and race tempo. He drops down in class and can improve dramatically here. Expect them to race close-to-speed from the outside draw.  Best of the rest is Serious Liaison (1), who has blinkers applied for the first time and should race handy from the inside draw. Senior rider Damien Oliver sticks.   Best Racing Tips 1st  Battenburg 2nd  Moonlight Maid 3rd  Soul Patch 4th  Serious Liaison   Race 7  Moonee Valley Gold Cup (Group 2 SW+P) 2500m Check out our preview of the Moonee Valley Gold Cup here, which includes market moves, track analysis, key runner comments and tips.   Race 8 Crystal Mile (Group 2 WFA) 1600m There is plenty of speed engaged here and you can expect fireworks at the start as a number of runners challenge for the lead. Dreamforce (4) is likely to win the early speed battle, with Rox The Castle (12) to carve across and sit outside. The former brings strong Sydney form, where he placed in the George Main Stakes before disappointing in the Epsom Handicap after he was expected to run well.    Gailo Chop (8) is dripping in quality and will appreciate finding this weaker race. He will race up in the firing line and has proven before that he is very tough late. Looks suited.   There was an interesting move late in betting for Pacodali (7) first-up at Caulfield and if they came again for him late, it may pay to follow. He must be showing plenty at home. Chief Ironside (6) had no luck last start in the Toorak Handicap when he was held up at a crucial stage. You can completely forget he went around and given more luck here, he can win.   Best Racing Tips 1st  Dreamforce 2nd Pacodali 3rd  Chief Ironside 4th  Gailo Chop   Race 9  Cox Plate (Group 1 WFA) 2040m Read everything you need to know about the Cox Plate here, including analysis on all of the key runners as well as our top selections.    Race 10 Tessio Stakes (Group 3 Mares Hcp) 1600m The stakes grade mares battle it out here in the last, where only a moderate tempo looks likely. Amangiri (5) gets control early and will look to rack and stack them. If the pattern is on-speed earlier in the day, expect her to start much shorter.  Music Bay can race handy and should carve across to sit just in behind or outside the lead. She has a touch of class and profiles well third-up (3:1-0-0).  One that can be close in the run is Snogging (2), who draws well and has the services of Mooney Valley specialist Brett Prebble. Expect her to be well supported late in betting.  Scarlet Dream drops right down in distance from the gruelling 2400m of the Metropolitan and she will be the strongest here late. Just needs a touch of tempo to get home hard.   Best Racing Tips 1st  Amangiri 2nd  Snogging  3rd  Music Bay 4th  Scarlet Dream We show profit statistics for staking plans posted by Australia's top form experts. Where no specific staking plan is provided best bet tips are weighted double compared to standard tips in the staking profit calculation.

Distance 2040m Grade Group 1 Track Rating Good 4 Prizemoney $5,000,000 Class WFA 2018 winner Winx ($1.24) This year's edition of the Cox Plate certainly has a much different feel due to the absence of Winx, who now enjoys retirement.  The field assembled should provide a more robust betting opportunity for punters than recent years, and you can expect to see a number of strong betting moves on the day. I am with one who comes via the Epsom and looks to have plenty of upside when compared to many of these.     Moonee Valley Track Traits The Moonee Valley surface is currently rated a Good 4, with the rail in the true position the entire circuit and some rain predicted for Saturday. Given the rail position and a rain affected surface likely, I expect the fast draining Moonee Valley circuit to still race fair.   As always, a close watch is advised early to determine any fast lanes or bias.     Racing Market Movers Castelvecchio has come in for strong support in early betting, firming from an opening quote of $12.00 to now trade at $7.50. Race favourite Lys Gracieux is on the drift, easing from $3.60 to $3.80.    Key Runners   #2 Avilius $12 Won well in Sydney two starts back when dominant in the George Main Stakes over 1600m at Randwick. He wasn't too far off them (1.7 lengths) last start in the Caulfield Stakes over 2000m and is now rock hard fit.  Draws well in barrier 7 and trust Kerrin McEvoy will follow the right horse to give him a nice tow into it. Very wary.      #3 Kluger $18  Arrives from Japan to tackle this first-up and is considered the lesser of the two Japanese hopes. This would be a training performance for the ages if they happened to win, following a nine week break. Expect a market drift. Avoid.     #5 Homesman $23 Was a huge run in the Underwood Stakes to finish 2 of 12, then did enough in the Caulfield Stakes last start when finishing sixth to show that he's still on target. They should roll forward from the wide draw in gate 16 and if they drop anchor at any stage throughout, expect him to be there fighting out the finish.  The current $23 in betting looks too big to my eye. The value runner.     #6 Kings Will Dream $21 Was blessed in the run last start at Flemington, when he won the Turnbull Stakes after having all the favours from a luxury midfield position. I suspect that even with luck here, he looks a shade below a few of the absolute topliners. Prefer others.     #7 Te Akau Shark $16 Brings strong Sydney form into this race. Pit in a bottler at his Australian debut before he was slightly unlucky in the Epsom Handicap, where excuses could be made for him not winning. He is lightly raced (9:5-3-0) and looks to have more upside than most. The Kiwi's are very shrewd and will have the right plan form gate 18. Expect the big syndicates to back him late. Yes.     #8 Danceteria $18 "Dancer" as the ownership group call him, is in this race up to his eyeballs! He was outstanding winning the Group 1 in Germany, before having a slight setback when an abnormal scope forced them to abort an Australian lead-up run. Reports are he is right back on track and showing plenty at trackwork. Include in everything. Yes.     #9 Lys Gracieux $3.60 > $3.80 No doubt she is very good, however I strongly believe we are getting well under the odds here. Following the Japanese heroics in the Caulfield Cup, every mug and his dog will be on this horse. As a result, she's likely to be very much overbet. The Group One credentials are strong, but I will be taking her on at the current price of $3.80. Lay.      #10 Magic Wand $14 Is Group One placed at her past two starts, both in big international races. Trainer Aidan O'Brien is an absolute magician and if they have targeted this race, the mare must be respected. She is very hard to assess and I expect the market to tell us everything late. If she drifts in the last two minutes of betting, the horse won't be winning.     #11 Cape Of Good Hope $12 Must be considered a good hope here following the Caulfield Stakes win first-up, where he ran on strongly from well back. He will need to peak up again to be winning this, although he has plenty of ticks including Mark Zahra to ride.   I have a few ahead of him, however he certainly would not surprise. Include in wider exotics.      #12 Mystic Journey $7  It appears as though she's not suited to this distance, as evident in the Turnbull last start where she needed to show more over the the concluding stages. Her preparation has been very disjointed, as connections have dodged wet tracks and found unsuitable races. I'm inclined to oppose at the current price ($7), however expect her to get right out to backable odds late. Wait for a much better price on the day.       #13 Verry Elleegant $18  Won the Hill Stakes at Randwick last start, which led the mugs to band together and declare "she is back in business". I'm not so sure. In a high pressure race on a busy day here, she is likely to be back to her old tricks of over-racing. Happy to risk and expect a market drift.      #14 Castelvecchio $12 > $7.50 Is all quality and will simply eat up the 2040 meter distance here.  He has an electrifying turn of foot late and just missed behind the very smart Shadow Hero last start at Randwick.   He just needs to handle the tighter Moonee Valley circuit to be charging late and fighting out the finish. Yes.     Of The Others #15 Humidor loves this race and has placed in it at his past two attempts. If he gains a start, he is certainly a top 4 hope at good odds.    Best Racing Tips 1st  Te Akau Shark 2nd  Danceteria  3rd  Homesman 4th  Castelvecchio  Performing independent validation of professional punters and racing experts from the media, theGreatTipOff.com is quickly becoming the authority of horse racing tipster proofing.