03/09/22 Saturday racing tips: Lays of the Day
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- Author: James BeesonSep 01, 2022 11:49 AM
- Photo: Getty
Recency Bias At Play
Last week we potted 2 warm favourites, when correctly identifying them as high-risk propositions for punters.
This week we look to continue the good form with another 2 poor value runners, both mid-way through the Moonee Valley card.
In Race 4 we are against a recent last start winner who comes up prohibitive odds at $2.00, whilst in Race 5 we are potting the young 3YO filly up against the older horses.
Moonee Valley Race 4 #2 Mr Brightside $2.00
This is a classic example of recency bias.
This is when a horse has come out and won well at his last start. A as a result, every man and his dog is rusted on for their next start.
The price is almost sure to be over-bet and the current $2.00 is pure poison.
Granted he may lead here with little pressure in the small field, however the rider will need to time his kick off the front to perfection, with plenty of talent sitting off him.
All other runners are resuming and the market believes he has the fitness edge with the one run back.
However, this is certainly already “baked” into the short price.
He gets all favours however at the quote it is a hard pass.
Lay.
Moonee Valley Race 5 #7 Coolangatta $2.30
Wow...
First-up against the older horses and we are being dished up odds of $2.30.
No doubt she is very smart, however a 3YO filly forced to take on some genuine hard heads here is far from appetising.
This race appears ultra high-pressure with a warp speed tempo predicted, ensuring she will have to work hard at some point.
The price can only drift from this point in betting and the hype of the Magic Millions win is what the mugs are pricing her on.
The big syndicates will hold off her and force her to start closer to $3.
Avoid currently.
