11/09/21 Flemington Tips & Best Bets for the Makybe Diva Stakes

Wow! What a gun field the Makybe Diva has attracted this year, with plenty of intrigue surrounding Cups contender Incentivise.

Is he good enough?

The narrative will focus heavily on this horse's transfer to the care of Peter Moody, and I believe the gun trainer will be "hell-bent" on winning this.

Whilst Moody's talented stayer will be hard to beat, I am with team Bob Peters in this and believe their brilliant mare can win.

 Flemington Track Traits

The Flemington surface is currently rated a Good 4, with the rail in the True position for the entire circuit and fine conditions predicted for Saturday. 

The surface at "HQ" typically races fair, and those horses launching from worse than midfield in the run home won't be disadvantaged.

As always a close watch is advised early to determine any fast lanes.  

 Racing Market Movers

Incentivise (#6) has been backed off the map here ($7.50 into $4.00), in what could be a sign that punters are loving the trainer switch and motivation factor.

Tofane (#12) has also had support and is $5.00 to $4.60.

Given the pronounced move for Incentivise, most other runners have drifted.

 Key Runners

#1 Sir Dragonet $26

High quality galloper and reigning Cox Plate champion, who is likely to find this too short.

Wait until he is deeper into his preparation and over further. No. 

#3 Keiai Nautique $13

Interesting Japanese sourced runner for Matthew Smith, who won this race last year with a similar Japanese flavoured runner (Fierce Impact).

He finished close up (0.37 lengths) in the Winx Stakes last start at Randwick, and had genuine excuses after being hampered in the run.

The camp know how to win this race and have a leading chance with this gelding. 

#4 Imaging  $26

Is another unlucky runner coming out of the Winx Stakes last start, where never really clear.

Although last start was inconclusive, I believe he is on a downward trajectory overall and won't be troubling these. No.

#6 Incentivise $7.50 > $4.00

One of the biggest Boom! horses in Australia right now, who has been given to Peter Moody for a Cups preparation.

Although some may think he won't be fully wound up, I expect Moody will be desperate to impress as the new trainer, and have him ready to win this.

He'll be primed and should look the winner at some stage.

#9 Aegon $10

Stormed home from well back last start in the Memsie Sakes, when clearly not suited by the smaller/tighter Caulfield track.

He will be much better suited by the wide-open spaces of Flemington, and should have every chance to wind up down the long straight here.

I can't find room for him in my numbers this time, however a win certainly would not shock. 

#10 Mo'unga  $5.00

The horse and stable are flying and he did beat a number of these first up in the Winx Stakes at Randwick.

He should sit in an ideal position, midfield with cover before peeling to run home hard.

The Sydney form could be stronger and if it is, expect him and the other Sydney raiders could feature strongly in the finish. 

#11 Collete $18

Had the track pattern against her in the Memsie when set a near impossible task from well back in the field.

She will love the bigger track here at Flemington and fitter now, is likely to be a big improver.

The market may have missed her here, and at the current $18 on offer I make her a great bet. Yes. 

#12 Tofane $5.00 > $4.60

Started favourite ($3) in the Memsie and did race well to place 3 of 11 behind Behemoth.

She is a gun mare with plenty of class and has the ability to race on or off speed.

Expect they may race midfield with cover on this occasion and present her a fraction later to utilise her lethal sprint. Yes. 

#13 Inspirational Girl $7.00

Looks much better suited now at Flemington due to her get back and run on profile.

She possibly was not fully screwed down last start for the Memsie, where still ran well to finish 5 of 11.

I'd expect she is the one with huge improvement here, due to the bigger track and race fitness. Yes.

Of The Others

#2 Fifty Stars comes up huge odds ($34) to my eye and gets to a track and distance he loves (6:2-2-0). 

He should be stoking up late and is certainly worth including on broader exotic bet types.