• Sign Up
  • Login
  • Contact Us
  • About Us
  • 16:54:14 AEST
  • Sunday, 06 July 2025
  • Gamble Responsibly 18+
theGreatTipOff.com
Tip Slip
 
Search Icon
Login x


Unable to log in?

Enter your email address and you will be sent your Login ID and a Password reset link

If you have been locked out, the forgot password reset link in the email will unlock your account

x
x
Enter accurate information
One trial per person. For this reason, we require your contact number for verification.
Tick to acknowledge site terms including 18+
clickmessage
x
clickmessage
x
Click
x
x
    • Home
    • About Us
    • Contact Us
    • Our Team
    • Help
  • Enter Tips
Tipster Show
  • Back to News
Form Lay

06/08/22 Saturday racing tips: Lays of the Day

  • Luke-Hovhanesian-0224.png
  • Author: Luke Hovhanesian
    Aug 04, 2022 11:51 AM
  • Photo: Getty
Tagged: Saturday Racing Tips

Recency Bias

This week we have found a prime example of “recency bias”, with a high-profile last-start winner almost certain to be overbet at Flemington.

Earlier in the card, we are also keen to take one on that appeared luckless last start.

This “flashing light” run has been well found by punters.

 

Flemington Race 1 #4 Berkeley Square $2.60

Another runner that is likely to be over-bet due to the last start “flashing light” run.

On that occasion, he was held up and only just missed (2 of 8) at Caulfield.

As discussed in previous Lays articles, these luckless last-start profiles seem to be very well found.

Recreational punters believe they have an edge and insight because they saw the horse run into “dead ends” last time out.

There are plenty of talented runners elsewhere in this race which will be harder to find for the recreational punter but represent better value.

Look for a market drift close to start time as the bigger model players take this runner on.

$3+ could be widely available come start time.

Avoid.

 

Flemington Race 5 #3 King Of Sparta $2.80

The market will be all over this runner after the first up run where he gave everything a touch-up.

The stable had him fully wound up and ready to go for the first-up assignment and he could regress here off the big fresh run.

Although he stays in Group 3 grade, this looks like a harder race with a number of Group performers.

Again the market will be priced on a large degree of recency bias until the bigger professionals get involved late to discover his true price.

With the expected gentle tempo, he may run out of runway to mow them all down on this occasion.

Lay.

 

Access the tips of winning punters!

Head to the horse racing tip market here to access the tips of thousands of Media Experts and Pro Punters with validated profit statistics!

Author Biography

Luke Hovhanesian

Luke Hovhanesian

Luke is a valued member of theGreatTipOff.com digital media team. He's regularly giving staff good mail in the office!

Top Stories

gator horses

David Gately Horse Racing Tips for Rosehill 5/7/25

Sydney racing heads back to Rosehill where the track is recovering from a Heavy 10 rating midweek. With clearer weather .....

Jul 05, 2025 08:50AM
READ MORE

Rosehill Turn

Horse Racing Tips for Rosehill 5/7/25

Racing heads to Rosehill Gardens this Saturday where a rain-affected track will be the order of the day, with the surfac.....

Jul 04, 2025 12:00PM
READ MORE

emm shock

Betting Tips: Early Market Movers at Rosehill and Flemington 5/7/25

This week we’ve identified several runners where trainers appear to be telling owners to have a bet! The early bet.....

Jul 04, 2025 11:30AM
READ MORE

Flemington Barrier jump side

Mark Hunter Horse Racing Tips for Flemington 5/7/25

Saturday’s racing returns to Flemington, where the famous straight will again test class, fitness and race tempo. .....

Jul 04, 2025 11:00AM
READ MORE

Racing News Topics

  • Horse Racing Tips Sites
  • Greyhound Racing Tips
  • Harness Racing Tips
  • RSN Racing
  • Herald Sun Racing
  • Super Racing
  • Racing.com
  • Sandown Tips
  • Warwick Farm Tips
  • Canterbury Tips
  • Sky Racing
  • Racenet


clickmessage
x
clickmessage
x
First Name
Mobile Number
Terms and conditions
Tick to acknowledge site terms including 18+
Residing State
Close
No Thanks
CANCEL
Confirm Cancel
loading
NO

Are you sure you want to cancel the card?

NO

Find Your Account

Please enter the email address or mobile number associated with your account.

Forgot login details

No longer have access to this email/mobile?

Not you?

Contact Customer Support

Please contact our customer support team here contact support

Enter security code