28/08/21 Caulfield Tips & best bets for the Memsie Stakes

The Group 1 Memsie always provides an intriguing clash, with fit horses pitted against classy runners returning for longer Spring campaigns.

This Saturday's edition is no different and punters are faced with the key decision between backing the fit horses, or classy first/second up contenders.

I am with a gun Godolphin mare, who will be prepared to the minute for a first-up win here. 

 Race Caulfield Track Traits

The Caulfield surface is currently rated a Good 4, with the rail situated in the True position for the entire circuit and fine conditions predicted for Saturday. 

Being Caulfield, expect some bias to be present and forward of mid-field to be advantageous. 

As always a close watch is advised early to determine any fast lanes.  

 Racing Market Movers

Sierra Sue (#12) is the runner punters are interested in early, and he has been well backed firming from an opening quote of $13 to now trade at $9.

Behemoth (#2) is a slight drifter, out to $4.20 from $3.90 openers.

All other runners remain steady.

 Key Runners

#2 Behemoth  $3.90 > $4.20

High-quality animal who knows this course (4:2-0-0) well and returns to defend his crown from last year's edition of the race.

He is a hulking beast of a horse, where at some venues he needs the barrier extender applied.

Coming off the Group 3 win at Morphettville last start (won on protest) he should be reaching peak fitness, and this is likely to have been the target race all along.

Should be in an ideal position midfield with cover throughout, before peeling to mow them down. 

#3 Streets Of Avalon  $18

Is already a dual Group 1 winner, who loves to lead and run them along.

There is early pressure engaged here however he still may be able to bluff them all and find the front, even from the wide draw (barrier 10).

Given any cheap sectionals mid-race, it will take a good one to run him down. Looks big odds ($19). 

#4 Archedemus  $67

Is another on speed runner, however possibly lacks the class to be competitive in this.

He'll only be providing nuisance value to other key on-speed chances. No. 

#5 Red Man Can $19

Has not been far away in all the key lead up races and did win the Sir John Monash earlier this preparation.

He is now rock hard fit with plenty of recent racing at stakes level, and this could hold an advantage on many of his rivals who may need the run.

Expect them to race in a forward position and could look the winner at some stage. 

#7 Aegon  $9.50

Talented and does love racing first up (2:2-0-0), although is likely to get a long way back which will make it a tough task ahead.

I can't completely pen him. However, I'm happy to be against here considering it's Caulfield and those mapping at the absolute rear are likely to be disadvantaged. 

#8 Beau Rossa  $9.50

Beat Behemoth home last start then lost the race in the stewards room.

He now looks primed for this race, which would have been the target all along.

From gate 1 there is some risk he is buried back along the fence, and hence I've left him out on this occasion. 

#9 Colette  $10

Gun Godolphin mare widely known for her devastating ATC Oaks win (2400m), however she still has a sharp sprint as proven in the Apollo win last prep over the shorter course (1400m). 

The Godolphin team would have left no stone unturned in preparing her for this and would love to chalk up a Group 1 early this season. 

She oozes quality and given the right run, could be the one darting through a gap late to collar them all. Yes. 

#10 Tofane  $4.50

They are looking to get to a Cox Plate this preparation! and if along with her lethal sprint she stays, look out!

Not sure how wound up she will be for this, however there may be some residual fitness still there from the excellent Brisbane Winter campaign (won The Stradbroke and Tatts Tiara).

If she is fit, expect she can be in the finish somewhere. 

#11 Inspirational Girl  $7.00

Highly talented mare who on her day would beat up on any field given the right set-up.

There is some concern she gets too far back (likely to be last) in this race, and given that Caulfield can often favour those racing more forward, I'm inclined to risk.

No shock to see her win, however it will take a good effort from the rear against these.

#12 Sierra Sue  $13 > $9

Has won her past two and still flys under the radar in this for mine.

She does not have the high-profile when compared to most of her rivals, and this fact alone can present punters with an excellent betting opportunity.

I could not find room in my numbers, however a win would certainly not surprise. 

Of The Others

#6 Sansom comes up huge odds ($41) to my eye and gets the gun map here from gate 2, sitting just in behind the speed. 

He had genuine excuses last time out when "pin-balled" throughout the run, in a complete forgive effort. I won't be losing on him at this price.