09/07/22 Saturday racing tips: Lays of the Day
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- Author: James BeesonJul 07, 2022 11:42 AM
- Photo: Getty
Moody Factor Over-Bet
This week we have identified two favourites that appear good risks due to a number of key factors.
At Caulfield, a Peter Moody runner looks over-bet, as has been common practice for runners from his stable over the past year.
While at Randwick in the Winter Cup, a Melbourne raider faces plenty of challenges and is unsuited from the inside draw on the wet track.
Caulfield Race 8 #4 Oxley Road $3.10
The “Peter Moody factor” is kicking in and the current price looks over-bet.
His runners are often heavily backed for no result and it appears there is someone internal at the stable or a close associate who loves a bet.
He is facing a few race-fit horses here, and although his first-up record is good (3:1-2-0), a horse's fresh ability can decline with age.
There is also plenty of pressure early from the likes of Sartorial Splendor, which won’t suit his natural pattern/desire to control it from out in front.
It will be mighty hard to burn the candle at both ends and his conditioning will give out late.
Look for him to be swamped inside the final 50m.
Avoid.
Randwick Race 8 #15 Chief Altony $3.50
There appears to be a number of factors against this Melbourne raider, making the trip north to tackle Sydney Stakes grade.
Firstly, gate 1 on a rain-affected track at Randwick is a significant negative.
By race 8, most riders will be seeking the A-ground out wide and pushing off the inside rail.
The race also appears to lack significant pace, and Chief Altony as a run-on profile is typically unsuited by a lack of tempo.
Although he has been racing well in Melbourne recently, the Sydney form is often a stronger reference and that is likely to be the case again here.
He will be back, buried and will need Kathy O’Hara to produce a well above average ride to be winning this.
Lay.
