Saturday Racing Lays of the Day 17/6/23

Tagged: Horse Racing Tips, James Beeson,

This week we have identified two favourites at Flemington that have come up well under the odds considering their challenging set-ups.

Early in the card, a flashy 2YO colt is coming out of slowly run races and now jumps up to 1420m for the first time.

Whilst mid-way through the card a popular runner faces a horror speed map, and is likely to be dragged back further than anticipated.

Flemington Race 2 #1 Steparty $2.30

He is unbeaten in 2 career starts and did win impressively here over the 1200m.

However, this is a completely different set-up now out to 1420m for the first time, and I’m happy to risk him.

He is yet to be tested in a fast-run race and if the pressure goes on here at any stage, it will be a new pain barrier for his lungs.

The step up in distance also heightens the risk he will fade and a few of the shrewd riders will be well aware of this, making this a real acid test.

The usual factors of being well exposed to the market are also at play and he is priced right up to his best following the flashy last-start win.

Avoid.

Going to pot the favourite here who was blessed last start when finding a position close to the speed and ideally placed throughout.

She is again forced to launch from a wide draw in barrier 13 and will need the breaks to come.

There is also way too much speed drawn underneath for her to find the gun run, one out and one back.

The absolute best-case scenario is they find the moving line with cover and this is still a risk when attempting to slot in from the widest draw.

The speed map here appears ugly and I can see the bigger teams getting stuck into her late, and the price drifting out from the current quote.

Lay.

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