08/05/21 Morphettville Tips for the SA Derby & Adelaide Guineas
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- Author: James BeesonMay 06, 2021 11:02 AM
- Photo: AAP
Melbourne raiders set to spoil local's party
Morphettville hosts another huge day of racing on Saturday, with the Group 1 SA Derby holding centre stage. The feature event is well supported by a good field in the Listed Adelaide Guineas over the mile.
There are some quality horses traveling from Sydney and Melbourne for both feature races, which will make it extremely tough for the local contingent.
I am against the favourite in the SA Derby, who had his grand final when winning the Australian Derby at Randwick.
Whilst in the Adelaide Guineas, I am with a class Melbourne visitor who just needs a touch of tempo to be running on.
Track Conditions
The Morphettville surface is currently rated a Good 4, with the rail on the main track out 2m from the 1200m mark to the winning post and true for the remainder of the circuit.
On the Morphettville Parks circuit, the rail is out 2m from the 1000m to the winning post and true for the remainder.
Mostly fine conditions are predicted for the remainder of the week in Adelaide, with some light showers predicted on Saturday.
Morphettville Race 7 - SA Derby 2500m (G1, 3YO SW)
The Map
There looks to be a genuine tempo here, with Royal Mile (2) and Ichibansan (14) both likely to roll along early at a decent clip.
Expect Royal Mile (9) to eventually win the battle for the lead and he will be looking for a cheap sectional at some point through the mid-stages.
The back-marker profiles of Personal (16), Explosive Jack (10) and Deepstrike (9) will both be hoping for a solidly run race, and are some chance to get that if others apply pressure up front.
The Favourite
Explosive Jack ($3.10) has the class edge after the recent ATC Australian Derby win, where he took on the country's best staying 3YO's and was too good.
There is a slight query on how he has pulled up from that race, after he sustained a long and searching run from the rear to get up over the 2400m.
With his run-on profile there are some speed map concerns in this if the race is only moderately run. However, there looks to be a decent enough tempo to allow him to run home hard.
The stable would not be running him if he had not bounced out of the Sydney win and you can trust the horse is well enough.
Best Racing Tips
I'm with Liqueuro here, who has had a lighter prep than most and did beat the favourite two starts back when they clashed at Bendigo.
He would have been set for this race and is yet to have had a "bottoming out" gut buster over the distance. The horse also has the tactical speed to settle a touch closer in the run, which should place him in the ideal striking position.
Personal put in a huge run last start here in the Oaks when he flew late to place second.
She is one that seems to relish racing and given more luck last start, possibly should have won.
Damien Oliver sticks and will know the right course to plot from out wide in gate 16, after launching from a similar barrier (15) last time out.
Explosive Jack has to be included following the ATC Australian Derby heroics at Randwick, where he flew late to win.
There is just a slight query as to if he has been up for too long post the "grand final". However if the speed goes on, expect him to feature in the finish somewhere.
Include Solar Apex for wider bet types, as he has the Waller polish and young horses can often relish the trip away from home.
The Sydney mid-week and provincial form can line up well against the VIC and SA horses, hence punters should not be deterred by this aspect. $31 appears big odds to my eye.
1st Liqueuro
2nd Personal
3rd Explosive Jack
4th Solar Apex
Morphettville Race 8 - Adelaide Guineas 1600m (Listed, 3YO SW)
The Map
Casino Seventeen (11) loves to lead and looks to have an excellent opportunity to do so in this race, with little speed drawn elsewhere.
Given the lack of early pressure, a few of the more fancied runners may attempt to travel closer in the run and you can expect Embolism (8) and Agreeable (7) to look for a midfield position with cover.
Cherry Tortoni (9) is a natural back-marker and will need a decent tempo to run-on, if they don't also decide to travel closer in the run.
The Favourite
Cherry Tortoni ($2.40) faces speed map issues, where a slow tempo would be strongly against him and diminish his ability to make ground late.
There is no doubt he is the class runner and if there is some speed throughout, he will be storming home over the top.
It could be a hard watch if you back him, however class does carry them a long way.
Best Racing Tips
Going to roll the dice and put Cherry Tortoni on top here.
He is clearly the class runner and despite the speed map concerns, should be charging home to be in the finish.
He is trained by a gun stable and has shrewd local jockey Todd Pannell engaged. Just needs a touch of tempo to gather them all in late.
Way To Go Paula has had the right preparation with a sound last start effort (2 of 14) in the Listed Nitschke stakes, when very strong through the line.
The1600m looks perfect now and she does have the tactical speed to find a midfield position with cover.
Agreeable was only fair in the Nitschke, where he wasn't knocked around and was possibly given a "sighter" for this assignment.
Go off his win two starts back at Caulfield, where ran-on strongly to win over 1400m.
Embolism brings strong Sydney form, where his recent runs have been against some of the country's best 3YO's including Hungry Heart.
He should relish the drop in class and could simply blow this field away. The booking of John Allen is a big plus.
1st Cherry Tortoni
2nd Way To Go Paula
3rd Agreeable
4th Embolism
