13/03/21 Moonee Valley Tips for the All Star Mile

The 2021 All Star Mile has assembled a high quality field of top class Weight-For-Age stars, with both Arcadia Queen and Sir Dragonet leading the popularity stakes following their successful Spring campaigns. 

The 1600m at Moonee Valley poses some interesting questions for riders, who know that going well back from this tricky starting point is fraught with danger.

Add in a forecast of rain on Saturday, and the intrigue will only continue to build.

I am with a gun Waller runner who sets up well coming out of a fast run race last start, and has the quality to topple the stars.

The gun mare Arcadia Queen certainly looks up against it if the rain comes, given she has never won in the wet.  

 Race Moonee Valley Track Traits

The Moonee Valley surface is currently rated a Good 4, with the rail in the True position for the entire circuit.

From the rarely used 1600m start point at Moonee Valley, there is a short run to the first turn. Therefore, it can be an advantage to be on-speed or just in behind with cover. 

Significant rain is also predicted for Saturday, which will influence the hopes of  a number of key chances.  

As always refer to earlier races for any indication of track bias

The Map

Expect this year's edition of the All Star Mile to be a run at a genuine tempo, with most riders keen to find a position before entering the first turn.

Look for Streets Of Avalon (14), Shout The Bar (3) and Greysful Galmour (11) to all rush forward, with the former likely to win the early speed battle and take it up. 

Probabeel (10) and Behemoth (1) both have tactical speed and are likely to take the coveted positions midfield with cover. 

Given a genuine tempo, the midfield profiles appear best suited here.  

 Racing Market Movers

Sir Dragonet has been the one best supported early, and is $21 into $15 in early betting. 

The early drifter has been Behemoth, who is out to $14 from $9 openers.

Race favourite Arcadia Queen remains steady around the $3.40 mark, however could drift as the prospect of rain becomes more likely. 

 Key Runners

#1 Sir Dragonet $21 > $15

Cox Plate hero who flopped badly first-up in the CF Orr, when he was heavily backed into $2.70 and did nothing (7 of 9).

He will find this no easier than last start, however if the rain comes he could grow an extra leg.

Inconclusive last start and a wet track appears his only hope here. Was the hype justified? 

#2 Behemoth $9 > $14

Could be the forgotten horse after the Futurity Stakes run (4 of 9), where he jumped favourite ($3.50) and wasn't suited by the lane he travelled in.

He was a dominant winner here at Moonee Valley earlier in his career, hence any track related queries are put to bed.

Look for him to hunt up from the inside and hold a position just in behind a brutal tempo. He could easily bounce back to winning form.  

#4 Mr Quickie $18

From the wide gate (barrier 13), he is almost certain to be forced to race well back in the field.

His only winning option appears to be circling the entire field, which is not desirable in a 1600m race at Moonee Valley. No.   

#5 Star of The Seas $15

Creates plenty of interest in this and certainly has the quality to compete with some of the more high-profile WFA stars.

He comes out of a brutally run Blamey Stakes, where the hot tempo will have him cherry ripe for this from a fitness angle. 

He can be ridden a touch closer here and should find the moving line. Goes on top. 

#6 Mugatoo $11

Should have gone very close to winning the Cox Plate here last year, after having no luck travelling wide throughout and managing to stick on well to hold fourth placing.

Trust the Lees camp have done plenty of work at home to sharpen him up for the mile, and reports are that he has been working well. 

He is right in this and given any luck, should be trucking into it at the business end. Leading chance. 

#9 Russian Camelot $8

Oozes class and whilst not all went to plan last campaign in the Melbourne Cup (8 of 23) and Cox Plate (3 of 14), he still has plenty of "X factor".

I expect the stable to have him primed and would be highly motivated after the campaign that promised the world, but failed to deliver last preparation.

He will have to be very very good, and I'm happy to bet against what would be a miracle training effort on this occasion. Avoid.  

#10 Arcadia Queen $3.40

Is a superstar mare who does look to have the wood on most of these.

However on this occasion, she may not have it all in her favour with a predicted wet track (3:0-0-1) and fast tempo.

She is too good to leave out, but keep in mind she may be unsuited due to conditions and race set up on Saturday.

Watch the weather. 

#11 Probabeel $4.00

Has dominated at both starts back this campaign, winning twice at Caulfield in Group 2 grade and then Group 1 company of The Futurity.

The wide gate (barrier 10) is the only query here and if they opt to go right back, it will be difficult to win.

Trust the stable/rider decide to go forward and find a midfield or better position in the moving line. Tope hope. 

#12 Shout The Bar $20

Has the Gai/Bott touch and will race in a forward position.

However this is a hot WFA field and I doubt he can hold on late against this quality. No.   

Of The Others

#16 (e) Fifty Stars Currently sits as an emergency however if he gains a start, has to be considered after jumping favourite ($3.50) last start in the Australia Cup.

He had no luck last start and is a complete forgive coming off that run. Can atone.