06/03/21 Randwick Guineas & Canterbury Stakes Tips
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- Author: Joshua ReedMar 04, 2021 04:44 PM
- Photo: AAP
Without Doubt
We are heading to Sydney's HQ on Saturday for Randwick Guineas Day, with no less than 9 stakes races set to be run and won including two Group 1 events.
The two feature races for the day are the Group 1 Randwick Guineas for the three-year-old's and the Group 1 Canterbury Stakes.
Supporting the main events are the Group 2 Challenge Stakes, Group 2 Riesling Stakes for the two-year-old fillies and the Group 2 Todman Stakes for the two-year-old colts and geldings.
It shapes up to be a cracking day of racing.
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Track Assessment
The Randwick track is currently rated a Good 4 and with fine weather forecast in Sydney over the coming days, there is a chance of a mid-meeting upgrade.
Based on recent meetings here, results have been very fair with winners coming from all over the track.
Expect that pattern to continue on Saturday.
Randwick Race 7 - Randwick Guineas 1600m (G1)
The Map 
There looks to be a plenty of pace in this race, which is likely to favour very few of these runners.
Look for Marsannay (1) to kick up from the inside gate and attempt to wrestle for the lead with Peltzer (13), who is likely to push forward from the wide draw.
Lion's Roar (10) and Harmony Rose (9) will go forward from their awkward barriers and are likely sit behind these two leaders.
Here To Shock (7) and Bucharest (5) will push for a midfield spot, as will Prime Star (11) and The Elanora (12) from their wide draws.
Both North Pacific (4) and Wheelhouse (6) have drawn well and will attempt to find a forward position.
Expect Aegon (8) to settle beyond mid-field from barrier 8, but I expect Bowman to make a move before the home turn so that he can be within striking range around the bend.
That leaves Mo'Unga (2) who will likely drift back alongside King's Legacy (3).
The Favourite 
Aegon ($2.10) has come up the favourite for this race and a short one at that.
The Sacred Falls gelding made his Australian debut at Rosehill in the Hobartville Stakes, winning in impressive fashion.
He followed rival Prime Star into the race before darting back to the inside around the 300m mark and accelerated through the gap, putting pay to his rivals over the final 200m.
The gelding hit the line well and is now looking for the mile.
Although the draw looks a touch awkward, I think he can sit somewhere in the middle of the pack and prove too classy for them late.
Analysis and Tips 
Aegon ($2.10) is my top pick for this race for all the reasons above.
Lion's Roar ($19.00) would be the one I'll be backing for the place.
He should find a forward position in the run and be prove strong at the end of the mile.
Randwick Race 8 - Canterbury Stakes 1300m (G1)
The Map
There looks to be speed on paper, but I don't expect any of these runners to go helter-skelter as it would ruin their chances.
I expect Mizzy (1) to kick forward from the inside barrier along with Savatiano (3), who I expect to see sit one off the rail from barrier 3.
Dreamforce (5) and Samadoubt (6) have both drawn well enough to apply early pressure on the front two, and I think all four will set a nice average pace and make it a sit and sprint affair.
Dawn Passage (7) will attempt to slot in just behind them, as will Bivouac (8) who jumps up 200m from his last start.
Masked Crusader (2) and Madam Rouge (4) will look to hold them out after drawing well.
Look for Kementari (9) to bring up the field from the wide draw.
The Favourite
It's no surprise that Bivouac ($3.00) has come up favourite and he's likely to start shorter considering his big following.
You could say his effort in the Black Caviar Lightning was underwhelming, but he is better suited beyond 1000m.
His second-up record is good but I do wonder if this was an afterthought for Team Blue.
However, it does concern me that he is going from 1000m to 1300m second-up.
Glen Boss will be set the task of getting him into an attacking position from barrier 8 and will be relying on a strong tempo.
Place chance for me.
Analysis and Tips
I've gone with two on-speed runners here, who can control the tempo and offer a strong kick.
Samadoubt ($14.00) is on top for me on the back of a long lay-off. He's trialled impressively over the 900m and 1100m, so I have no doubt he will be forward enough here.
His first-up record is fair and he performs well at this track and distance.
The key booking of Josh Parr suggests he's ready to run a bold race at each-way odds.
Savatiano ($3.80) is the saver. I think she gets the run of the race one-out one-back.
She was impressive in the Expressway first-up and her second-up record is almost as good.
She is yet to miss a placing in 8 attempts at 1300m and she handles all conditions.
For a list of all the tipsters who have posted Randwick tips for Saturday's racing meet, checkout the dedicated page at theGreatTipOff.com.
