07/03/20 Randwick Tips: Guineas Preview

This year's Randwick Guineas has attracted a number of high quality three-year-old's, many on route to the ATC Derby.

The 1600m distance makes for a healthy contest, as it will allow those horses who aren't genuine stayers to still showcase their best.

I am sticking with the Cox Plate form and am with one who beat home the very smart Te Akau Shark in that clash. 

 Randwick Track Traits

The Randwick surface is currently rated a Soft 5, with the rail out 3m the entire circuit.

Rain is predicted for the remainder of the week in Sydney, with clearing conditions on Saturday.

With a rain affected surface at Randwick, I expect riders to go searching for better going out wider. 

 Racing Market Movers

The scratching of race favourite Super Seth has caused a complete market readjustment in early betting.

Shadow Hero has been listed as new favourite at $4.50, with a wide open market on offer for punters. 

 Key Runners

#1 Castelvecchio $5.50 

Is all class after placing second in last year's Cox Plate, where he beat home the smart Te Akau Shark.

He won the Group 1 Champagne Stakes as a two-year-old here over 1600m, so the Randwick circuit suits him well.

With any speed-on, he will be unleashing hell late. Goes on top.

#3 Microphone $6.50

Was expected to win last start when he jumped $2.25 favourite in the Hobartville, before only placing 3 of 11.

He has plenty of quality and was the winner of the Group 1 Sires Produce here as a two-year-old. 

Serious player, who could easily blow them all away. 

#4 Warning $11

Is the Victoria Derby hero who did enough first-up to suggest he can be competitive over the Randwick mile.

From the good draw here in gate 2, look for them to race closer to speed which will put him into the race. 

Different tactics could surprise a few and reap benefits.  

#5 Shadow Hero $4.50 

Started favourite to win the Victoria Derby, before a disappointing display to finish 5 of 15. 

He was ok first-up in the Hobartville at Rosehill, when he settled well back and chased hard all the way through the line.

The late race sectionals suggest that he can run over the top here late. Leading chance. 

#6 Brandenburg $8.00

Was a huge win first-up, when he surprised a few in the Hobartville at huge $41 odds.

I doubt that was a fluke, as he was very good over the Melbourne carnival and still has plenty of upside.

He will get back and be charging late, with any wet conditions playing right into his hands. Can win again.  

#8 Reloaded $9.50 

Ran very well last start to place 2 of 11 in the Hobartville. That was despite the race not going to plan, after he had genuine excuses when finding trouble throughout.

Given more luck here and a clear passage, he can run well again.

He is far more sharp over the shorter distances than most of these and if there is no speed, he will be the one.  

#9 Kubrick $12

Should receive a dream run from gate 6, midfield with cover.

He is another with sharper legs and can outsprint a few of the staying types, given the right run off a slow pace.

Needs the right run, but is certainly capable of causing an upset. 

#10 Pancho $11

Was only plain in the Hobartville, where he finished midfield and was a beaten horse at the 200m mark. 

This grade looks too hot for him. No. 

#11 Conqueror $14

Looks to have good ability and arrives via a very different form-line (Karaka Million) to most of these.

At times the different form can be worth following, however on this occasion I suspect that it is not as strong as the traditional Hobartville lead up. Avoid. 

Of The Others

None Preferred.