19/02/22 Flemington Tips for Black Caviar Lightning & CS Hayes Stakes

Author: Rick Morris

Feb 18, 2022 12:18 PM
Photo: Getty

Tagged: Flemington, Black Caviar Lightning

Will Lightning strike twice?

Flemington hosts one of the best sprints of the Autumn carnival this Saturday, with the Group 1 Black Caviar Lightning Stakes hosting the return of defending champ and Everest winner Nature Strip.

The other main event we are focussing on is the Group 3 C.S. Hayes Stakes over 1400m for three-year-old colts and geldings.

The 1000m track record could be in danger, with some of the best sprinters in the country ready to burn up the famous straight.

Track Conditions

The surface at Headquarters is currently rated a Good 4, which should produce fair racing for all.

The rail is in the true position for the entire circuit, so you can expect it to be a belter of a meeting.

Flemington Race 6 - CS Hayes Stakes 1400m (Group 3)

The Map

From the good gate, Nash Rawiller will look for the lead on former New Zealander Mana Nui (3).
From the wide draw, Lina’s Legend (13) may be forced to carve across and race handy.
Providing Lightsaber (6) steps away from the barriers better than what he did last week, expect him to settle in the first few.
Look for Umgawa (1) to tuck in behind the leading pack from the rails draw.
Captivant (11) and Forgot You (10) may have to go back in the field from their wide gates and hope for the right trail.

The Favourite

Pinstriped ($3.30) is the favourite after winning both starts to date.

Whilst he has been convincing in those victories, there are a couple of unanswered questions going into this Group 3.

He's yet to travel over 1400m, so the last 200m could be a stretch. Furthermore, he hasn’t raced on a surface better than a Soft 6 rating.

If he can overcome those challenges, then he is right in the race.

Best Racing Tips

I am selecting Captivant who is the highest rater in the field.

The son of Capitalist won the Group 1 Champagne Stakes and was runner up to Anamoe in the Caulfield Guineas, with both races being over 1600m.

Second-up last Spring, he finished 3 lengths behind Anamoe in the Group 2 Run To Rose over 1200m.

There were some smart ones ahead of him in that contest and the 1400m here will be more to his liking at this stage of his prep.

Leading jockey James McDonald should be able to find a back to follow on straightening and call on his class to get the job done.

Captivant

Lightsaber was a forget run in the CF Orr Stakes last week after blowing the start.

He has a great record at the distance (5:3-0-0) and will be hard to hold out.

Forgot You put in some good runs last prep and will be getting home hard.

Pinstriped could be good enough to win, however just going with the earlier knocks on whether he can be strong enough at the end in this class.

Captivant
Lightsaber
Forgot You
Pinstriped

Flemington Race 7 - Black Caviar Lightning Stakes 1000m (Group 1)

The Map Speed Map

Nature Strip (6) and Eduardo (5) will set the tone of this speed contest, with the former set to take up the early running and the latter sitting three quarters of a length to his inside.
The three-year-olds, Profiteer (7) and Home Affairs (8), will go forward and let the two experienced campaigners duel it out for early supremacy
Gytrash (2) will get a lovely trail and watch it all unfold in front of him.
The explosive finisher, Masked Crusader (3), will go back in the field along with Swats That (9) who placed in this race last year.

The Favourite

Everest champ Nature Strip ($2.40) returns to defend his title from last year, after defeating September Run and Swat’s That.

This looks a tougher edition of Black Caviar Lightning than last year's, however he's racing as good as ever and there's a reason he's the world’s highest rating sprinter.

Best Racing Tips

Eduardo defeated Nature Strip over 1000m and 1100m whilst the latter had the measure of Eduardo over 1200m.

I think Ed will make it a true test over the final 600m and might just get the upper hand in the drive to the line.

Eduardo