29/2/20 Saturday Racing Tips at Flemington
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- Author: Lewis WilloughbyFeb 28, 2020 05:13 PM
- Photo: AAP
Best bets on Australian Guineas Day
Flemington plays host to a strong card this Saturday, with all the talk surrounding the Group 1 Australian Guineas and the much-anticipated clash between Catalyst and Alligator Blood.
The track is currently rated a Good 4 and with fine weather predicted, punters can expect a quality racing surface.
The rail is out 2m the entire circuit and at this set-up, I anticipate a fair racing surface.
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Flemington Race 1 Tip #4 Diamond Effort $1.85
This Clinton McDonald trained mare kicked off her Autumn campaign last start with a dominant 4-length win over 1100m at Caulfield. She was eased down at the final 75m by rider Ben Melham on that occasion, which makes the win all the more impressive.
She ran the fastest sectionals of the race that day, and was sitting three wide no cover approaching the corner.
She remains at the suitable 1100m trip, strips fitter second-up and looks primed to replicate her previous second-up tilt, when she broke her maiden by 6-lengths.
I'm not usually a fan of tipping horses at this very short quote, but I struggle to see anything in this race that can beat her.
She will only have improved off her first-up win, and that is a scary thought.
Back on to a Good track poses no concern and this is not the strongest BM84 by any standards.
Flemington Race 7 Tip #4 Catalyst $2.60
This star New Zealand 3YO returns to Flemington for another crack at Group One glory in the Australian Guineas.
He was locked in a stirring battle against Alligator Blood second-up over the 1400m, with Soul Patch, Dalasan and Chenier fighting out minor placings behind them.
The key for Catalyst here is the step-up to the 1600m third-up. His previous attempt at the mile resulted in a dominant win in the Group One 2000 Guineas at Riccarton, New Zealand.
There is no doubt that Catalyst would have improved off that second place behind Alligator Blood last start. Now at peak fitness and with an extra 200m to play with, he looks perfectly placed.
It is also worth noting that David Vandyke has reported to the media that Alligator Blood is unlikely to have improved off that 1400m run, as he is now five runs in this campaign and already in peak condition.
Chenier, Soul Patch and Dalasan are all open to improvement, but they would need to lift another gear again to beat Catalyst.
Drawn well in barrier four, he maps to sit outside Alligator Blood on the speed and should prove too strong over the last 200m.
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