29/2/20 Flemington Tips: Australian Guineas Preview

This year's edition of the Australian Guineas will showcase the heavyweight rematch of two gun three-year-old's.

Alligator Blood took the spoils against NZ raider Catalyst in their first encounter. However, the Kiwi looks to have more improvement and has been well supported to beat the local on this occasion.

I suspect this Group 1 clash won't be a two horse race however, with others in this field certainly capable of causing a boil-over. 

 Flemington Track Traits

The Flemington surface is currently rated a Good 4, with the rail out 2m the entire circuit.

Fine conditions are predicted in Melbourne for the remainder of the week and blue skies are expected for Saturday.

With the wide open spaces of Flemington and clear conditions, every horse should have their chance in the run. 

 Racing Market Movers

Race favourite Catalyst has firmed slightly in early betting from $2.60 into $2.50, forcing Alligator Blood to ease out to $3.20 from $3.10 openers.

All other runners remain steady. 

 Key Runners

#1 Alligator Blood $3.10 > $3.20

Showed great fight when prevailing in the two horse war against Catalyst last time out here in the CS Hayes.

From gate 1, expect them to bounce straight to the front again and possibly receive some cheap sectionals.

He is all quality and just needs to hold form to be fighting out the finish. Top hope.  

#2 Dalasan $16

Was slightly disappointing first-up, when he was heavily backed to win the Manfred before finishing 3 of 6. 

He then went to the CS Hayes last start and was never a hope off the slow tempo. 

I can be forgiving here given he had genuine excuses at both previous runs, where he was unsuited by sluggish tempos.

He could easily surprise a few in this and bounce back to winning form. 

#3 Alabama Express $7.50

Could not have been more impressive last start when winning the C F Orr Stakes, after he travelled wide throughout and was still dominant at the end. 

He has the tactical speed to push forward and should race in the first few throughout the race.

I expect him to be suited by a moderate tempo again here and can power away. Leading chance.   

#4 Catalyst $2.60 > $2.50 

Star Kiwi who was only just out-bobbed by the very talented Alligator Blood at his Australian debut. 

He looked to be going better at the 200m mark last start and condition just gave out over the concluding stages.

Expect him to have more improvement to come and therefore can turn the tables on Alligator Blood this time out. Goes on top. 

#5 Soul Patch $26

Can take good improvement from the first-up run, where he finished 4 of 6 in the CS Hayes.

He is much fresher than the top fancies here being second-up, which means he is open to good improvement.

Last prep he showed that he was ultra competitive at the top level and this is certainly not beyond him. Looks big odds.

#6 Superstorm $15

Has to be respected if they are willing to travel from WA and take on this grade.

He was highly fancied ($1.55) first-up, when winning well at Ascot in much weaker grade. 

Will need to be at his absolute best to be beating these, however I can't completely rule him out. Watch betting.  

#7 Chenier $6.50

Has the services of the nation's premier rider Damien Oliver and did enough behind Alligator Blood and Catalyst in the CS Hayes.

He was slightly unsuited by the slow tempo last start and still chased hard to the line.

Just needs a touch of speed here to be running on hard at the end. Can atone.   

Of The Others

None Preferred.