22/02/20 Caulfield Tips: Blue Diamond Stakes Preview

This year's edition of the Blue Diamond features a typical line-up of our high quality two-year-old crop.

The raging favourite is highly likely to be the best horse in the race, however he's come up with an awkward draw in gate 1.

If the inside is off and he is crossed, expect him to have his work cut out picking his way through.

I am with one from a gun two-year-old stable, who should be off and rolling out in front. 

 Caulfield Track Traits

The Caulfield surface is currently rated a Soft 7, with the rail out 3m the entire circuit. Some rain is predicted on Friday in Melbourne, however fine conditions are expected on Saturday.

Given two-year-old's enjoy galloping room, expect those who travel three wide in a moving line to still be in the mix over the short 1200m scamper.  

 Racing Market Movers

Race favourite Hanseatic remains rock solid in early betting at the $2.50 mark, with little betting action seen at this stage.

 Key Runners

#2 Hanseatic $2.50

Has a lethal turn of foot and could not have been more impressive here last start, when he charged home from well back to win the Prelude. 

I have a slight knock on the draw in gate 1, and the rider is under immense pressure to hold a much more forward position this time out. 

He appears the best horse in the race, however the value may be elsewhere considering a tricky speed map. Prefer others.      

#3 Rathlin $17

Ran well in the Prelude, where he chased hard to place 3 of 12 and only 0.8 lengths off the winner.

He has been up a while now being five starts deep, in what has been a torrid preparation.

Two-year-old's can quickly go stale in a drawn out preparation and I suspect that he is very close to that. Avoid. 

#5 Tagaloa $17

Appears well above average and has been impressive enough in all three career starts.

The speed map looks favourable and from the good draw in barrier 4, look for him to find a gun position midfield with cover. 

This is the acid test and although he was beaten by the top two in betting last start, he can't be ruled out.    

#6 Rulership $6 

Looks pure quality and appeared to have the Prelude all parceled up last start, until Hanseatic arrived right on the peg. 

The rider slowed them mid-race in that race and should have kept the speed on throughout.

Expect him to burn out in the lead again here and keep the throttle on, to deny the favourite an opportunity to bob up again. Goes on top. 

#8 Away Game $11

Won the Magic Millions before being very dominant as a short priced favourite at Randwick last start.

From gate 10, expect the filly to use her natural speed to race close to the front and potentially find an ideal moving line position.  

There's a slight concern that she's peaked this preparation and the only way is down, however she must be considered. Watch betting late.  

#11 Letsbeglam $7.50 

Was as green as grass in the Prelude, when she raced close to speed and prevailed in a clumsy manner to win with ease.   

Whilst the last start win was good, she was not expected to do anything (started $34). With that SP profile I can't get excited. No.  

#12 Muntaseera $11

Arrives via Letsbeglam's Prelude, where she was expected to run well after starting short in the market ($3.30).

She is one I can entertain given not all went her way last time out, after she over-raced early before being held up in the straight.  

Watch for a much improved run here. Yes.  

#13 Personal  $18

Has been kept in cotton wool, with the stable electing not to contest the Prelude. 

Historically, this strategy has proven beneficial and being the fresh horse may be a masterstroke. 

Betting inside the final few minutes before start time will be an excellent guide. Very wary. 

Of The Others

#10 Aryaaf is not without a hope and was expected to win when jumping favourite ($2.60) in the Chairman's Stakes here last start.

She looks big odds at the current quote and could surprise a few of these. Watch betting. 

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