Lay Betting Tips: who to avoid on the punt 14/12/24

We silenced the doubters last week with two well fancied hot pots Lockyer and Dream All Day failing horribly.

Hopefully the mugs don't charge into this week's money munchers.

A Randwick, a 2YO filly remains in restricted class however is forced to take on the higher quality of the Sydney-based crop.

Whilst at Caulfield, a Ciaron Maher import without a senior rider around the “trick” circuit, may struggle at the poison odds.

Horse Racing Lays on Saturday

Randwick Race 5 #6 Within The Law $2.70

While many may see this race as straightforward, the field is deeper than anticipated.

The horse impressed on debut at Flemington, winning convincingly in similar restricted sales grade conditions.

However, it's worth noting that the Victorian Inglis qualified horses in that race may have been weaker than the Sydney-based brigade she faces now.

Although her last start performance was impressive, this race represents a significant step up in class. Her rivals possess more quality and she could be found out here.

The expected pace scenario sees her racing prominently, and she's likely to encounter plenty of pressure throughout the 1000m sprint.

Given the anticipated pressure and the quality of the field, the current price for Within The Law is very unappealing.

Avoid.

Caulfield (Heath) Race 9 #3 Warnie $2.20

Warnie appears to be overbet in this race which features several tough, experienced horses with proven quality.

While he has been racing well and is rising to a more suitable distance, his French form suggests he may still prefer longer distances.

His best performances in France came over 1600m and beyond.

The less experienced rider is another concern, particularly on the tricky Caulfield circuit, where tactical experience is crucial at this distance.

I anticipate a market drift as professional punters take a cautious approach.

A price closer to $3 may be available closer to race time.

Access more betting tips for Saturday racing here.