Melbourne Cup 2024 Tips: A brutally honest assessment of your horse

There’s plenty of hype around every runner in the 2024 Melbourne Cup, but in reality only a few horses have a real shot at winning.

To help you cut through the noise, Mick Gannon has rated each contender and provided a straightforward, honest assessment of each horse’s true chances in the big race.

The Field

 #1 Vauban (55.5kg) - $7.00

Barrier 11

J: W.Buick T: W.Mullins

Invader who paraded like Stefanovic post logies last year.

Blessed with plenty of ability, maps well and can win.

Just needs his pre-race manners in check.

 #2 Buckaroo (54.5kg) - $6.00

Barrier 21

J: J.Moreira T: C.Waller

The Magic Man is one of the best cuddlers in racing.

He was out-ridden in the Caulfield Cup and now must overcome a wide draw and peak over 3200m at his first crack at the trip.

The horse to follow from the Caulfield Cup, but needs one of the great cup rides.

#3 Circle Of Fire (54.5kg) - $34.00

Barrier 24

J: M.Zahra T: C.Maher

His Sydney Cup rating over 3200m has him right in contention.

He’s got the King Kong of the Melbourne jockey room to ride and arguably Australia’s leading trainer to prepare.

Would need a Glastonbury type turnaround in form to win this.

#4 Warp Speed (54.5kg) - $26.00

Barrier 3

J: A.Sugawara T: N.Takagi

I feel like they’re lying to us. He will appreciate getting to the 3200m and a drier track.

Drawn well but is another who has a long way to improve to be competitive here.

Have to risk.

#5 Kovalica (53.5kg) - $21.00

Barrier 17

J: D.Lane T: C.Waller

Absolutely nothing would surprise me from the Waller yard. He’s unproven over the 3200m, was flogged in the Cox Plate and yet it just wouldn’t surprise to see him win.

Love the Cox Plate building run and the booking of D Lane, if he runs a strong 3200m he’ll be in the finish.

Big if though!

 #6 Sharp N Smart (53.5kg) - $71.00

Barrier 15

J: M.Dee T: G & D Rogerson

Over the odds for the Rogerson yard who knows what it takes to win a Cup.

3200m looks ideal and he’s a must include for top 10 bettors.

 #7 Just Fine (53kg) - $31.00

Barrier 13

J: J.McNeil T: G.Waterhouse & A.Bott

The likely leader of the race who needs to return to his best to run in the top half.

He’ll give a sight before waving the white flag at the 400m.

 #8 Land Legend (53kg) - $17.00

Barrier 18

J: Z.Purton T: C.Waller

Over raced like an absolute goose in the Caulfield Cup.

The wide draw looks ideal, he can roll across, sit outside leaders and show his true staying ability.

Big chance he fights out the finish.

 #9 Absurde (52.5kg) - $10.00

Barrier 7

J: K.McEvoy T: W.Mullins

Looked like the winner at the 300m last year before turning it right up late.

That was a strong run 3200m and he was forced to do the heavy lifting from the 800m.

Looks set for a better run this time, the addition of a patient Kerrin McEvoy is a big plus.

Over the odds, top pick!

 #10 Athabascan (52kg) - $41.00

Barrier 2

J: Z.Lloyd T: J.O’Shea & T.Charlton

Honest stayer who will land on-speed.

Would be shocked if he finished in the top 5, but maps a treat and gets every chance to show his wears.

It just won’t be good enough though.

 #11 Knights Choice (51.5kg) - $101.00

Barrier 6

J: R.Dolan T: J.Symons & S.Laxon

Will relish the 3200m and is far from the worst.

He’s a big price and should be included in wider exotics and played in top 10 markets.

Can’t see him winning but can see him closing off well.

 #12 Okita Soushi (51kg) - $21.00

Barrier 10

J: J.Kah T: C.Maher

Draws a treat, gets J Kah to ride and is in career-best form.

Has to improve again and is the right price.

No knock but lacks X-factor.

 #13 Onesmoothoperator (51kg) - $8.00

Barrier 12

J: C.Williams T: B.Ellison

Dominant last-start winner of the Geelong Cup, maps a treat, retains Willo and is a clear second-pick.

#14 Zardozi (51kg) - $15.00

Barrier 4

J: A.Atzeni T: J.Cummings

Great run in the Wakeful and was good enough in the Caulfield Cup.

Has X-factor on the quick backup and looks like one who will relish the Flemington 3200m.

Top 5 lock.

#15 Sea King (50.5kg) - $9.50

Barrier 1

J: H.Doyle T: H.Eustace

Hard to knock winning form.

Draws for a soft run in transit but will need luck at a vital stage.

This is a big ride for young H Doyle, let’s hope she’s ready for it.

#16 Valiant King (50.5kg) - $61.00

Barrier 22

J: C.Newitt T: C.Waller

Could start now and wouldn’t win.

#17 Fancy Man (50kg) - $81.00

Barrier 19

J: R.Stewart T: A.Neasham & R.Archibald

One batter who could run midfield if lucky.

#18 Interpretation (50kg) - $17.00

Barrier 14

J: T.Nugent T: C.Maher

Hard to make a case for this horse winning.

Looks way under the odd!!!

#19 Manzoice (50kg) - $61.00

Barrier 8

J: D.Bates T: C.Waller

Next…

#20 Mostly Cloudy (50kg) - $101.00

Barrier 16

J: K.Teetan T: T.Busuttin & N.Young

Honestly, what are we doing here

#21 Positivity (50kg) - $101.00

Barrier 20

J: W.Costin T: A.Forsman

There is no scenario where this horse wins this year’s Melbourne Cup.

#22 Saint George (50kg) - $21.00

Barrier 9

J: T.Schiller T: C.Maher

Who doesn’t like a new pair of kicks?

His feet issues appear to be have been sorted and barring a stinking ride in his lead up, he looks to be building to a peak performance.

He has a handful of ratings that go close to winning.

Wouldn’t shock to see him in the finish.

 #23 The Map (50kg) - $41.00

Barrier 23

J: R.King T: D.Clarken & O.Macgillivray

The pride of a nation, well at least South Australia.

Will have plenty of fans, but won’t be winning.

 #24 Trust In You (50kg) - $101.00

Barrier 5

J: M.Du Plessis T: B.Wallace & G.Cooksley

To think he got the last spot just makes me bitter.

Making up the numbers!!

Mick Gannon's Melbourne Cup Tips 2024

1. Absurde
2. Onesmoothoperator
3. Zardozi
4. Vauban

First 4:

9/13 – 8/9/13/14/15 – 8/9/13/14/15 - 1/2/5/6/8/9/12/13/14/15/22

$100 = 18.18%

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