Lay Betting Tips: who to avoid on the punt 9/11/24

This week’s lay selections both appear over-bet due to their recent wins.

At Flemington, the Cox Plate winner pushes on with the Spring campaign, in what is an afterthought where the market is “rusted on” and completely in love with her last-start performance.

While at Rosehill another last-start winner should drift as we approach start time, where the professional teams are likely to penalise the recent below-par performance of the stable.

Horse Racing Lays on Saturday

Flemington Race 8 #10 Via Sistina $1.70

Far too short and massively over-bet following the Cox Plate heroics where recency bias is firmly in play.

This is a deep race and a completely different set-up around Flemington, where all runners should have their chance.

No doubt she is very good and the Cox Plate win was ultra impressive to the eye and clock, however the market reaction here in a deep race seems to be overplayed.

She was set to peak in the Cox Plate and this is obviously an afterthought where she should be more vulnerable.

Avoid.

Rosehill Race 9 #6 Fire Star $2.70

The stable is severely out of form and appears to be going through a very lean trot in recent times.

This runner has chalked up back-to-back wins in lesser grades and is now forced to take on genuine Saturday city class, in a field with some experienced hardheads engaged.  

He loves to race close to speed, however drawn out in gate 8 around the tighter Rosehill circuit he will need to spend some tickets early.

If the instructions are to ride to his preferred pattern he could be paddling late.

I expect a significant market drift with this runner, and he could start close to $4.00 come start time.

Lay.

Access more betting tips for Saturday racing here.