Lay Betting Tips: who to avoid on the punt 30/11/24

This week’s lay selections focus on two favourites at Caulfield, both of which present excellent risks at their current prices.

Midway through the card, a high-profile stallion purchase appears to be struggling and has been placed in a weaker grade here in an attempt to boost the confidence of both the horse and the new ownership group.

Later in the day, a last-start winner is returning to mares’ open grade after a win in restricted Inglis class and should find this field a much tougher assignment.

Avoid both runners at their current short quotes in betting.

Horse Racing Lays on Saturday

Caulfield Race 5 #1 I Am Unstoppable $2.90

The pressure is on now after the horse was secured for stud duties by several high-profile owners.

The horse has struggled to compete at the higher Group levels and it appears connections have been forced to drop back to Listed grade here in search of a confidence-boosting win.

The speed map looks unfavourable from gate 7 and while drawing wide at Caulfield can be an advantage, this runner lacks the tactical speed to secure an early position.

He will likely need luck timing a late run from well back.

I believe this placement signals the horse is not performing well and despite dropping in grade, he still shapes as a significant risk at the current short price.

I’m happy to oppose him.

Avoid.

Caulfield Race 10 #5 Running By $3.20

This runner comes out of a restricted Inglis-grade race where although she won well, she was advantaged by the limited calibre of opposition.

Returning to mares’ open class here, the field appears much deeper.

She was absolutely “blessed” in the run last start, enjoying the perfect trip sitting fourth before coasting home as she pleased.

I expect more pressure in this race and if she has to work harder, her current price looks significantly unders.

From gate 4 and with some early speed drawn around her, she may find herself further back in the run and stuck in traffic.

The race set-up here is markedly different compared to her last start and she presents as an excellent risk in the final race of the day.

Lay.

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