Lay Betting Tips: who to avoid on the punt 16/11/24

This week we focus on two runners that come up good risks as over-bet favourites in their respective races.

At Caulfield a high-profile popular runner has been up and racing for an eternity this preparation, with the “Grad Final” run likely to have been last start in the Coolmore Stud Stakes, where far from impressive.

Whilst at Newcastle’s stand-alone Saturday meeting a popular rider/trainer combination has not been missed, however faces a tricky speed map for gate 1 and should struggle for racing room late.

Horse Racing Lays on Saturday

Caulfield Race 4 #1 Coleman $2.60

Coleman has been the hyped three-year-old all Spring, yet has failed to deliver each time the market has backed him.

Admittedly, this race is a much easier assignment compared to his recent outings, as he’s dropping down from the elite Group 1 level of the Coolmore Stud Stakes.

However, I don’t believe this justifies his current short odds.

In the Coolmore, he looked like a tired horse, merely grinding to the line for a midfield finish (7th of 14) beaten decisively by over six lengths.

I suspect he was primed to peak in the Group 1 Stallion-making race, and this appears to be an afterthought run.

There’s a strong chance he’s on the decline now and may race flat.

The travel between Melbourne and Sydney this prep could also start to take its toll.

Around Caulfield's 1400m track, I expect those racing in forward positions to hold the upper hand, leaving Coleman as an excellent risk.

Avoid.

Newcastle Race 5 #5 Pippie Beach $2.50

Pippie Beach seems over-bet as the favourite in this race, likely due to the popular Waller/Nash trainer-rider combination.

She has been running at Benchmark level for several races now, and although she’s placed in her last two starts, the performances haven’t been particularly impressive.

In her last start at Rosehill she seemed to have every opportunity, settling just behind the leaders and benefiting from an ideal run.

Yet, she failed to fully let down and reel them in.

With no exceptional early speed, barrier 1 could be a disadvantage here.

She’s highly likely to be crossed early potentially ending up three-back along the rails, which could leave her short of racing room.

Traffic issues and a lack of genuine class to make her current price unfavourable.

Lay.

Access more betting tips for Saturday racing here.