Horse Racing Tips for the Thousand Guineas 2024

With one formline likely to dominate as a key reference for punters in this year’s Group 1 Thousand Guineas for three-year-old fillies, surprises should be minimal, especially with a firm track expected.

For me, the Group 3 Vanity Stakes over 1400m at Flemington stands out as a stronger form reference than the Group 3 Carbine Club.

Although the Carbine Club was contested over the same mile distance as the Guineas and produced the early favourite, the Vanity looks to have been the more insightful race for this context.

As always, tactics will play a role, but one filly stands out as the superior galloper on any track condition, with the greatest potential for improvement.

Thousand Guineas 2024 Tips and Best Bets

Track Conditions

With clear skies and warm temperatures forecast for the 48 hours leading up to race day, we should be looking at a Good surface.

Ideally, it’ll hold at a Good 4, although with Saturday’s temperature expected to exceed 30 degrees, we may see it firm to a Good 3.

The Speed Map

Too Darn Lizzie, at long odds, is expected to cross from a middle gate to lead in a race lacking much on-speed pressure.

Positioning just behind the leader is Dominetta ($14.00), who is peaking third-up.

Longshot Another Prophet is drawn well and should get a comfortable run tucked away from an inside barrier, alongside the lightly raced Stage ’N’ Screen ($12.50).

Close behind them will be another roughie, Let’s Fly, a recent maiden winner at Kembla.

Vanity Stakes winner Zeitung can settle closer to the speed from an ideal draw and is likely to slot in around midfield and one off the fence.

Double Market ($19.00) and Lovelycut ($11.00) are in similar positions.

Carbine Club winner and early favourite Aeliana will likely drift back from a wide barrier to settle towards the rear, along with Tasmanian raider Geegees Mistrust ($12.00) who is drawn even wider.

The Favourite

There’s no question Aeliana has the quality and the finishing speed to take out what appears to be a moderate edition of the Guineas.

However, her price is a risk given she’ll be settling well off a likely moderate pace.

Jockey James McDonald may need to get her rolling from the half-mile mark to stay in contention.

At an early price of $3.40, she’s under the odds!

Neil’s Best Bet

The race looks perfectly set up for Zeitung ($4.20) from Godolphin, who should settle around midfield, one off the fence.

He’s primed fitness-wise for the extra furlong, and his late burst from well back to win the Vanity was impressive and can’t be overlooked.

The Dangers

Lovelycut ($12.00) offers value and looks well-placed third-up, coming off a tough run behind Zeitung.

Of course, Aeliana, shooting for three consecutive wins, is a major chance if she can get a good run into the race from the 600m mark.

Stage ’N’ Screen also presents great value at around $13.00.

Neil’s Top FOUR

1. ZEITUNG
2. Aeliana
3. Lovelycut
4. Stage ’N’ Screen

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