Lay Betting Tips: who to avoid on the punt 1/2/25

This week, we focus on two favourites at Rosehill who both face significant challenges and appear severely over-bet at their current prices.

Early in the day, a popular Coolmore runner—an expensive yearling purchase—may be forced to overcome a tricky speed map from the outside gate (barrier 7).

Later in the day, a John O’Shea-trained runner steps up in grade again to genuine Saturday metro Benchmark 88 level, which is never an easy task, regardless of how well they have been performing in recent starts.

Avoid both runners at their current short quotes in betting.

Horse Racing Lays on Saturday

Rosehill Race 3 #2 Fermoy $2.60

I’m happy to take on these short-priced two-year-old runners, who often take turns winning.

Fermoy was good on debut over this track and distance, winning after enjoying a soft run.

However he wasn’t strongly supported in the market ($11), suggesting his victory may have been more due to race circumstances rather than superior ability.

As a $1.9 million Easter yearling purchase, there is often a temptation to push these high-priced horses early in their careers, particularly with the Golden Slipper in mind.

This forced program can be a negative, as it may not allow them to develop naturally.

He is likely to settle back from the outside draw, in line with the stable’s usual pattern and will be giving a number of these a head start as they enter the straight.

I expect him to drift in the market leading up to start time, with $3+ likely to be widely available by the jump.

Avoid.

Rosehill Race 10 #8 Yorkshire $1.70

Yorkshire has been racing well in much weaker grade but now faces a tougher assignment, stepping up to Benchmark 88 level in a Saturday metro meeting.

When horses move up in grade at such short odds, it often presents an excellent opportunity to oppose them and that seems to be the case here.

With J Mac booked and the form guide showing a last-start win, the “mug money” is likely to pile in, ensuring the corporate bookies keep his price artificially compressed throughout betting.

While he possesses natural early speed, significant pressure will come from wider runners in the first 200 metres, meaning he may not get the soft run that many assume he will.

At the current price, he looks well under the odds.

Lay.

Access more betting tips for Saturday racing here.