Horse Racing Tips for the Melbourne Cup 2024

The Melbourne Cup has arrived.

The true pinnacle of Australian thoroughbred racing and an event that captivates the entire nation, from seasoned punters to casual fans.

While everyone wants to pick the winner, the thrill of this 3200m race is that nearly every horse has its own unique chance of victory.

Here’s a look at the field, giving you insight into each contender’s strengths and potential challenges.

Dive in, pick your favorite, and see why I believe they can and can’t win.

 

 

Track Conditions

With warm weather and no rain expected leading up to the Cup, the track should be a firm Good 3 come Tuesday.

The rail will be out 2m, but every horse should have its chance on this well-prepared Flemington track.

 

Flemington Race 7 – Melbourne Cup (3200m)

The Map

To the shock of absolutely no one, a Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott-trained runner will lead the Cup field around in Just Fine (13) with Okita Soushi (10) likely to be alongside.

Willie Mullins-trained pair Vauban (11) and Absurde (7) won’t be too far from the front, much like last year.

Other top contenders Zardozi (4) and Land Legend (18) will be spotted around midfield as will U.K. runner Sea King (1) with Holly Doyle in the saddle.

Impressive Geelong Cup winner Onesmoothoperator (12) won’t be much worse than midfield, while Caulfield Cup runner-up Buckaroo (21) will likely have to come from the rear from that wide barrier.

The Cup won't be run at an overly quick pace and make it difficult for runners to come from last.

I expect a few of those towards the rear will need to make mid-race moves should they want to put themselves into contention.

 

The Field

#1 Vauban (55.5kg) - $7.00

Barrier 11

J: W.Buick T: W.Mullins

While he failed in the 2023 edition as favourite, he still warrants heavy respect.

He is in even better form this preparation, with a sensational win in the Lonsdale Cup at York and a 2nd to the champion ‘Kyprios’ last start with 62kg.

Buick comes down from the U.K. to ride and we all know Mullins superb record in Australia.

Can he showcase his ability in Australia? That’s the big question.

 

#2 Buckaroo (54.5kg) - $6.00

Barrier 21

J: J.Moreira T: C.Waller

He is the form runner coming into this and looks the safest bet to have in the race.

Ran one of the best 2nds you will see in the Caulfield Cup and was only narrowly beaten the start prior in the Turnbull by Cox Plate winner ‘Via Sistina’.

Has never ran 3200m before and he has come up with an awful barrier that will mean he will need a bit of luck to go his way.

 

 

#3 Circle Of Fire (54.5kg) - $34.00

Barrier 24

J: M.Zahra T: C.Maher

Does not look to have come back the same horse so far this preparation and has yet to finish better than midfield.

We do know that the Sydney Cup winner will stay the 3200m distance and that might see him finish better than midfield.

Likely will be a long way back from barrier 24 and should result in him not troubling the finish.

 

#4 Warp Speed (54.5kg) - $26.00

Barrier 3

J: A.Sugawara T: N.Takagi

Never came into it in the Caulfield Cup in his first run in Australia, but there is no doubt that the Japanese raider was brought over here for this race.

Goes much better over 3000m+ and should see improvement on his last run.

Don’t think it will be enough to be in the finish but can finish in the top half of the field.

 

#5 Kovalica (53.5kg) - $21.00

Barrier 17

J: D.Lane T: C.Waller

Was in great form and had some superb form lines prior to the Cox Plate.

Would like to have seen him finish off better last Saturday over the 2040m and that casts doubts over him staying the 3200m.

Has won at 2400m before but the Cup distance is a whole different beast.

 

#6 Sharp N Smart (53.5kg) - $71.00

Barrier 15

J: M.Dee T: G & D Rogerson

While he is not in the greatest of form, he has never run a bad race at 2400-2500m here in Australia.

Ran well in the Moonee Valley Gold Cup and if ‘Okita Soushi’ is a $21 chance, he shouldn’t be $71.

Can’t see him troubling the finish but he will run far better than his price suggests he will.

 

#7 Just Fine (53kg) - $31.00

Barrier 13

J: J.McNeil T: G.Waterhouse & A.Bott

Tough to know what we are going to get from this 6yo Gelding.

He is very inconsistent which makes him tough to back.

Should get a soft lead in front and we have seen Jye McNeil go all-of-the-way in a Melbourne Cup before (Twilight Payment in 2020).

Would not shock if he battles on and finishes top 10 but also wouldn’t shock if he trails off and finishes near last.

 

 

#8 Land Legend (53kg) - $17.00

Barrier 18

J: Z.Purton T: C.Waller

Zac Purton continues his quest to add a Melbourne Cup to his elite CV and he once again sits aboard a great chance to do so.

Had to take off early in the Caulfield Cup on this son of Galileo and he battled on well to finish 3rd and his Metropolitan win was extremely tough.

While he has yet to get beyond 2400m, he is bred to stay and still has improvement in him being a 4yo.

 

#9 Absurde (52.5kg) - $10.00

Barrier 7

J: K.McEvoy T: W.Mullins

Just like with ‘Vauban’, it is take two in 2024 with this 6yo Gelding, who ran 7th in last year’s Cup.

Has had a far different campaign to his stablemate, jumping over some hurdles earlier this year before putting in two solid performances on flat in August.

Small freshen-up for him and gets the services of three time Cup winner Kerrin McEvoy.

Gets a great run in the race and a huge chance of going even better than last years result.

 

#10 Athabascan (52kg) - $41.00

Barrier 2

J: Z.Lloyd T: J.O’Shea & T.Charlton

Had a big turnaround in form last start when winning over 2600m at Randwick, narrowly holding out ‘Wyclif’ (who ran a narrow 2nd to ‘Fawkner Park’ at Rosehill on Saturday).

Was the runner-up in the Sydney Cup, so we know he will likely stay the distance but doubt he has the quality to be in the front third of the field.

 

#11 Knights Choice (51.5kg) - $101.00

Barrier 6

J: R.Dolan T: J.Symons & S.Laxon

Put in his first decent run of the campaign last start, when running 5th in the Bendigo Cup.

Did finish 5.2-lengths off ‘Sea King’ in that and I can’t see the Bendigo Cup winner being in the top 4 in this, so it should result in this Queenslander being in the back half of the field at minimum.

 

#12 Okita Soushi (51kg) - $21.00

Barrier 10

J: J.Kah T: C.Maher

Will get a good run on-pace and gets the in-form Jamie Kah on for the ride, fresh off winning the first Cup Carnival feature on Saturday in the VRC Derby.

Finished midfield in last year’s Cup and while he is in great form leading into this, having won the Moonee Valley Gold Cup last start and finishing 2nd the start prior, I can’t see him finishing better than 10th.

 

 

#13 Onesmoothoperator (51kg) - $8.00

Barrier 12

J: C.Williams T: B.Ellison

While his U.K. form does not stack up against the likes of the Willie Mullins-trained pair, he has done something that the pair haven’t and that’s come here and win.

He was superb when unleashing a strong burst to win the Geelong Cup by 2.3-lengths and has proven in the U.K. that he will handle the step-up in distance just fine.

If the Mullins pair have an off day, he is a big chance of taking this out.

 

#14 Zardozi (51kg) - $15.00

Barrier 4

J: A.Atzeni T: J.Cummings

Wasn’t sure about this 4yo mare running just 4 days prior to the Cup over 1600m in what was basically a glorified trial but with the way she hit the line in the race, there is every reason to believe she is ready to fly on Tuesday.

Ran well to finish 4th in the Caulfield Cup and was beaten in a stirring battle by ‘Land Legend’ in the Metropolitan.

Like the Metrop winner, she has yet to run at 3200m but he work leading up to this suggests she will go well and could be threatening the top 4.

 

#15 Sea King (50.5kg) - $9.50

Barrier 1

J: H.Doyle T: H.Eustace

Very similar story to ‘Onesmoothoperator’.

The U.K. form is nothing special but he has come here and produced a dominant display to win the Bendigo Cup, which warrants respect.

Holly Doyle travels down from the U.K. for the ride and she will have the aid of being drawn barrier 1 to be not too far off the front.

Should be finishing in the front third of the field.

 

#16 Valiant King (50.5kg) - $61.00

Barrier 22

J: C.Newitt T: C.Waller

Was given a solid chance this time last year but never ended up lining up in the 3200m contest.

Finished midfield in the Caulfield Cup and while there is no doubting his best form would see him go well, I don’t think he is at that level anymore.

Likely will finish just worse of midfield.

 

#17 Fancy Man (50kg) - $81.00

Barrier 19

J: R.Stewart T: A.Neasham & R.Archibald

Has put in a few solid performances so far this preparation, headlined by his last start 6th in the Caulfield Cup.

Has yet to run at this sort of distance range and despite not running a poor race this campaign, would need a significant improvement to get to the front half of the field.

 

#18 Interpretation (50kg) - $17.00

Barrier 14

J: T.Nugent T: C.Maher

Finished 6th in last year’s Cup and may be able to run to a similar position with the way he has been finishing off his last two runs.

Was a real eye-catcher of the concluding stages of the Geelong Cup when running 2nd and was also good late in the Bart Cummings at this track over 2520m.

Can’t see him winning but think he is certainly capable of running top 10.

 

 

#19 Manzoice (50kg) - $61.00

Barrier 8

J: D.Bates T: C.Waller

Started off this preparation well, with two placings in Sydney over 1800m and 2100m but has been poor in his two Melbourne runs leading into this.

Last time he contested the 3200m, he finished 13.8-lengths off ‘Circle Of Fire’ in the Sydney Cup.

Would take a big turnaround in form for him not to be finishing towards the rear of the field.

 

#20 Mostly Cloudy (50kg) - $101.00

Barrier 16

J: K.Teetan T: T.Busuttin & N.Young

Put in a flat run in the Bart Cummings, where he reportedly didn’t handle the wet track, but his form prior to that was quite solid.

Looked to be building nicely for this contest and he has ran well at this distance twice before, with a 6th in the Sydney Cup and a 2nd in the Brisbane Cup.

While he won’t trouble the placegetters, he will certainly run better than his price suggests he will. Should be half the price.

 

#21 Positivity (50kg) - $101.00

Barrier 20

J: W.Costin T: A.Forsman

Was looking promising at this start of this campaign with a 2nd first-up over 1700m behind the handy ‘Rise At Dawn’ and then won second-up at 2000m.

However, he has been poor since stepping out beyond 2000m in his last two starts.

Does still have upside being a lightly-raced 4yo mare but she would have to turn a corner to stay the 3200m based off her last two runs.

 

#22 Saint George (50kg) - $21.00

Barrier 9

J: T.Schiller T: C.Maher

His U.K. form gives him a solid chance in this but his performances so far in Australia have yet to impress.

It is difficult to comprehend how he is $21 and Positivity is $101 when the latter has beaten him home 3 out of 4 times this preparation.

While he has upside as a very lightly-raced 4yo, he is very much under the odds based on his Aus form.

 

#23 The Map (50kg) - $41.00

Barrier 23

J: R.King T: D.Clarken & O.Macgillivray

There is enough to like about this South Australian to feel that she will run better than her price suggests.

Can be confident he will run the distance, after she finished a narrow 2nd over the 3200m in the Adelaide Cup earlier this year and won the Andrew Ramsden over 2800m in May to qualify for this.

While she has been hitting the line well enough in his last two starts, she would need to improve quite significantly to get close to winning this.

 

#24 Trust In You (50kg) - $101.00

Barrier 5

J: M.Du Plessis T: B.Wallace & G.Cooksley

While he doesn’t look capable of troubling the finish, he is another who will run better than his price suggests.

Ran enormous to finish 4th in the Metropolitan behind ‘Land Legend’ and ‘Zardozi’, a terrific form reference for this.

Was a touch underwhelming over the 2600m last start behind ‘Athabascan’, but certainly wasn’t poor.

Can see him finishing around midfield.

 

 

Melbourne Cup 2024 Tips and Best Bets

1st – #1 Vauban $7.00

He burnt me last year but if he is on his ‘A-Game’ on Tuesday, he will blow them away.

He is in even better form this preparation than last and besides last year's Cup, he has never missing a placing at this distance range.

Jockey William Buick travels down for the steer and has taken him to a win and two placings in three of his rides this preparation in England.

Maps superbly and looks a cracking bet at the price.

 

2nd – #2 Buckeroo $6.00

He is the safest bet to have in the race and I would be surprised if he doesn’t finish top 3 here.

Been superb all preparation long, including a narrow 2nd to Cox Plate winner ‘Via Sistina’ in the Turnbull and a 2nd in the Caulfield Cup, and is absolutely airborne at the moment.

The draw may cost him winning however as the race shape looks to be against him but he certainly is the form horse coming into this.

 

3rd – #14 Zardozi $16.00

Loved her Caulfield Cup run for 4th and loved her run in the Empire Rose on Saturday even more.

She seems to be in great order leading into the Cup and will be close enough to descend on them.

Running out the distance for the first time is obviously a query but with the way she has been finishing off recently, I’d suggest she will run out a strong 3200m.

Great chance and is the value bet to have!

 

4th – #8 Land Legend $19.00

Thought he was very brave in the Caulfield Cup, after having to make an early move but being able to stay on to finish 3rd.

Have to give him a good chance if giving ‘Zardozi’ a hope, as he has beaten her home in their last two clashes.

Distance is a query but he is bred to stay and has made no suggestion yet that he won’t run a solid 3200m.

 

For thousands more tips including free selections for today's racing, head to Australia's best racing tips market at thegreattipoff.com.