Horse Racing Tips for The VRC Oaks 2024

The cream certainly sits near the top ahead of the classic Group 1 staying battle for the fillies over 2500m.

With only a moderate speed anticipated early we’re looking at a real tactical affair, however I’ll be surprised if the pace doesn’t pick up sharply by the half-mile mark.

Two formlines naturally dominate the narrative, both from recent 2000m contests:

• The Group 2 Wakeful Stakes and
• The Group 1 Spring Champion Stakes

Yet there’s one “fly in the ointment” and she is perhaps the most underrated runner in the market.

She comes into this race after a strong win in the Group 3 Ethereal Stakes at Caulfield back on October 19 and looks primed for a peak performance here.

Victoria Oaks 2024 Tips and Best Bets

Track Conditions

Rated as a Good 4 on Wednesday, conditions are likely to ease closer to a Soft 5 by Oaks Day, with some showers forecast in the lead-up.

The rail moves out 5m, so expect those on or near the speed to hold an advantage early.

Keep an eye out in earlier races if runners are shifting wider in the straight, as we’re nearing the halfway point of the carnival.

The Speed Map

From a low draw, longshot Killcare Beachgirl is the likely leader and may be hard to catch if allowed to dictate terms upfront.

The position of favourite Treasurethe Moment is crucial.

She prefers to roll forward and sit just off the pace but will need to slot in from a wide barrier.

Too Darn Discreet should get an ideal run from her draw, settling a few lengths back with cover, along with Powers Of Opal.

Meanwhile, Noises is expected to go forward but will likely be positioned off the rail.

A pair back from them are likely to be Harlem Queen from a handy draw and Rag Queen, who also draws well.

This leaves Pleasure Artist, Femminile from out wide, and Inevitable Truth in the next group.

The Favourite

Treasurethe Moment is justifiably the favourite, though perhaps under the odds at $3.10 given her wide draw.

She comes in off three consecutive wins, was dominant in the traditional Group 2 Wakeful Stakes lead-up and has yet to finish worse than second in six starts.

However, if she faces pressure going out of the straight on the first turn, her ability to see out the trip may be questioned.

Neil's Best Bet

Newcastle-based Harlem Queen arrives at the Oaks distance at the perfect time and was excellent early value at around $6.50.

I loved the way she ran on fourth-up behind El Castello in the Group 1 Spring Champion, and this looks to be the ideal moment for her to peak.

The Dangers

From a favourable draw, the emerging Too Darn Discreet ($9.00) is a significant threat with every chance of making it four in a row.

Treasurethe Moment deserves plenty of respect, while Wakeful Stakes runner-up Powers Of Opal ($3.80) is right in the mix.

Another Sydney filly, Rag Queen ($26.00), also emerges from the Spring Champion and looks ready to peak over the distance.

Neil's Top FIVE

1. Harlem Queen
2. Too Darn Discreet
3. Treasurethe Moment
4. Powers Of Opal
5. Rag Queen

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