Melbourne Cup Tips & Analysis 2020
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- Author: Jackson FrantzNov 02, 2020 03:07 PM
- Photo: AAP
Irish raider ready to rock
Despite the global coronavirus pandemic threatening to derail the biggest race in Australia and arguably the world, the horse racing gods have found a way to ensure the biggest show of all goes ahead.
With one of the strongest and most intriguing Cup fields ever assembled, we see talented Northern Hemisphere three-year-old Tiger Moth and high-class stayer Anthony Van Dyck go around as equal favourites for Ballydoyle’s Aidan O’Brien.
O'Brien is yet to taste Melbourne Cup success, a race that continues to allude him despite his world-wide domination of staying races.
Surprise Baby, Russian Camelot and Verry Elleegant are the leading local hopes and all have found strong market support.
Can Verry Elleegant place her name alongside the immortal Makybe Diva as the only mare to carry 55.5kg to Cup success, and pull of a rare Cup double to give champion trainer Chris Waller his maiden Melbourne Cup?
Can Surprise Baby and Paul Preusker pull off one of the finest training feats we’ve seen and claim a Cup for Horsham coming off only two runs in 12 months?
The chances don’t end there. Sir Dragonet has been well supported and is looking for a rare Cox Plate / Melbourne Cup double for the deserving Maher & Eustace camp.
Meanwhile, Charlie Fellowes and the queen of Australian racing Jamie Kah team up with everyone’s favourite Prince Of Arran who has come so close yet so far in the last two editions of the race.
While no crowds will be in attendance to witness this brilliant Cup field, the spectacle that is the Melbourne Cup will once again take centre stage across the globe for the best 3 and a half minutes in sport.
Track Conditions
The Flemington track was upgraded to a Good 3 on Derby Day but will start in the Good 4 range on Cup day, with plenty of irrigation to be applied over the next few days.
With warm weather and clear skies forecast across Melbourne on Tuesday, punters should expect racing on a Good 3 surface come race 7 where all runners will get their chance and no bias will be evident.
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Flemington Race 7 - Melbourne Cup 3200m (G1)
The Map 
Expect Dashing Willoughby (10) and Etah James (20) to press forward from their outside draws to take up the running. Twilight Payment (6) will be able to lob in behind the speed to box seat from the midfield draw, with Finche (11) rolling forward from barrier 6 to complete the leading brigade.
Prince Of Arran (12) and Anthony Van Dyck (1) will settle in behind the speed from their rails draws and find cover, with Stratum Albion (9) and Persan (24) to their outside.
Vow And Declare (3) will lob in behind Arran and Van Dyck, while Oceanex (22), Steel Prince (16) and King Of Leogrance (14) will roll across from out wide and take up the midfield running.
Russian Camelot (15), Verry Elleegant (7) and Sir Dragonet (5) are drawn alongside each other and will settle together in the run towards the rear. They'll have between 15-18 runners ahead of them in the run and will hope that the speed is more genuine than it reads.
Tiger Moth (21) and Ashrun (18) map awkwardly from the car-park, but will offset their barriers by settling towards the rear and will need to get working from the 800m mark or be left behind due to the muddling tempo.
Surprise Baby (13) is drawn perfectly in barrier 7 and has the ability to settle a little closer to the leaders than last year, when he was dictated to by the barriers.
Analysis & Tips 
1st Tiger Moth $8.00
I'm more than happy to stick with the lightly raced and lightly weighted Northern Hemisphere three-year-old, despite the outside draw.
While some supporters are jumping ship after the barrier draw, I believe that it’s one of the better outcomes for this galloper who maps to offset the wide draw by rolling across and slotting into a position towards the tail of the field.
Kerrin McEvoy takes the reigns and there’s no other hoop I’d want aboard The Moth in this race. Of his three previous Cup Triumphs aboard Brew, Almandin and Cross Counter, each runner has jumped between barrier 17 and 23 while carrying a light weight.
Looking back over recent Cups:
- the 2017 edition saw runner-up Heartbreak City jump from barrier 23;
- 2018 winner Cross Counter rolled across from barrier 19 to settle second last the trip, before producing out wide; and
- Vow And Declare claimed last year’s edition jumping from 21.
Although this year’s running doesn’t look to have a great deal of speed engaged, it won’t be run at the pedestrian pace of last year that still saw Il Paradiso and Surprise Baby finish in the top 5 with flashing runs from the rear.
With all things even and luck in running, I expect McEvoy to replicate his winning ride aboard Cross Counter, where he peels to the outside turning for home before producing this exciting stayer down the outside.
Expect the Aiden O'Brien trained galloper to use his acceleration and weight advantage to prevail over the top and give McEvoy his fourth victory and third in five years.
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2nd Prince Of Arran
It's been 40-years since a horse won a Melbourne Cup following two previous failed attempts, when a chestnut mare by the name of Empire Rose claimed the 1982 title.
While it’s not a common occurrence, the Charlie Fellowes trained Prince Of Arran has the right credentials to write his name in the record books and go one better than his second placing last year and third placed effort in 2018.
With the in-form Jamie Kah booked to ride and drawing barrier 1, I expect him to take up a more forward position and settle between 5th and 8th in running and be given every chance if Kah can find an out at the top of the straight.
He’s been well found in the market and we won’t be able to get the odds of years gone.
However he’s proven over two miles, loves Flemington and has had the perfect lead up with a flashing light run in the Caulfield Cup, which he may have won if he drew an inside barrier.
3rd Surprise Baby
Was the hard luck story in last year’s race, when flashing into fifth to be beaten only 0.9 length off an extremely slow tempo.
Paul Preusker has plotted an unusual campaign for this talented stayer, giving him only two runs since last year’s Cup.
He'll be stepping up sharply in trip from 2000m to 3200m off the back of a subpar Makybe Diva Stakes run, but I’m not ready to jump off in his Grand Final.
While this year’s Cup field is arguably the strongest and most competitive of all time, Paul Preusker has made a big statement by engaging Craig Williams for the ride.
Expect the gun jockey to settle him midfield with cover from barrier 7, and produce with a powerful run with clear air at the top of the straight.
4th Twilight Payment
Very keen on the chances of this Joseph O’Brien galloper who lines up in his second attempt at the Flemington mile.
While the opening price of $51 was snapped up shortly I’m still happy to play E/W at the current price on offer, as this European raider claimed the scalp of stable mate Master Of Reality by 8-lengths two starts back in the Curragh Cup and has failed to put a foot wrong since last year's 11th placed effort.
Master Of Reality finished second in this race last year before being relegated on protest into fourth and is currently shorter in betting.
From barrier 12 Jye McNeil holds the Aces and can press forward to box seat in behind Dashing Willoughby and looks to get an easy time of it in a low-pressure affair.
5th Finche
Another lining up for his third attempt at Cup success, after a brave fourth in 2018 and fifth placing last year, and I can't not have him in my exotic numbers.
While he needs to improve a length or two to be winning this year’s edition, his lead up runs in the Makybe Diva and the Caulfield Cup have been superb when sitting wide without cover.
From barrier 6 here with J Mac aboard and only 54.5kg on his back, he’ll once again be right in the money at a track and trip he will relish.
