7/11/20 Flemington tips and best bets
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- Author: Lewis WilloughbyNov 06, 2020 10:37 AM
- Photo: AAP
Best Plays for Stakes Day
Flemington plays host to the final day of its four-day Melbourne Cup carnival, with Stakes Day rounding out what has been a superb week of racing.
The track is currently rated a Good 4 and with fine weather on the cards, participants will be met with another firm racing surface.
The rail will be out 7m for the entire circuit and the inside lanes may be chopping out, after 28 races in six days leading into Saturday.
Flemington Race 3 Tip #8 Morvada $7.50
Morvada looks a great each way bet here in the Group 3 Chatham Stakes over 1400m and although it is a highly competitive race, I think they have gone up with the wrong price.
He returned last start from a five week freshen, and ran fourth in the Group 3 Moonga Stakes over this distance. He led on that occasion and really rolled along in front, running some strong sectionals mid-race.
With the lack of race fitness combined with the strong tempo he set in the lead, he was always going to be vulnerable at the end and was only beaten 2.7 lengths by Wild Planet.
Second-up here and stripping much fitter, he sticks to the 1400m and returns to a firm Flemington track. He is most certainly a dry track horse, so the Soft 6 last start wouldn't have been ideal. The Good track here will be right up his alley.
He is a weapon at 1400m, with a record of 13:5-4-2 and a track and distance record of 3:0-2-1.
From barrier 7 with no designated leader in the race, expect him to roll forward with only 55.5kg and take up the running to dictate proceedings.
I have no doubt he factors in the finish here, with some freshness on his side compared to other contenders and Group 1 form-lines all around him from earlier in the Spring.
Flemington Race 6 Tip #1 Santa Ana Lane $9.50
It's been a long time since I've tipped cult hero Santa Ana Lane, and it's with fair reason. In the last 12 months he has had seven starts for only the one placing, when he finished second in the Group 1 TJ Smith.
But in what could very possibly be Santa's final performance, I genuinely think he has an outstanding chance to win the Group 1 VRC Sprint Classic.
He will be third-up here, coming off a sixth placing in The Everest last start in what could very easily be described as the second best run of the race behind the winner Classique Legend.
Santa gave away an almighty start at the top of the straight in that clash, before rattling home in the fastest last 200m split of the race by almost a length, proving there is still some sprint left in those old legs.
It was also the fourth fastest last 200m split of the entire meeting. The fastest went to Purple Sector, who has since won again impressively at Flemington on Tuesday.
Santa was beaten only 1 length on the line by Bivouac in The Everest, who lines up here at almost half the quote that Santa does, which seems absurd to me.
Ben Melham has ridden Santa with success before, winning the Group 2 Premiere at Randwick and finishing a gallant fifth in the Group 1 Newmarket Handicap at this track and distance.
He SP'd as favourite in this race last year, but was no match for a freakish performance by Nature Strip who is not running as well this time around.
He maps to stalk a hot tempo in front set by Nature Strip and Fabergino. He has no issues on a firm track and from barrier 7, he will be able to find the best going in the straight.
