7/11/20 Flemington Tips for the Mackinnon Stakes & VRC Sprint

The final day of the Flemington Cup carnival features two important Group One events, one for the sprinting elite and the other over a testing 2000m for our middle distance stars.

In the feature sprint, I am with one who oozes class and loves this track and distance.

Whilst in the Mackinnon Stakes, a horse that was very unlucky in the Cox Plate can atone.

Track Conditions 

The Flemington track is currently rated a Good 4, with the rail out 7m for the entire circuit. 

Overcast conditions are predicted for the remainder of the week in Melbourne, however it's unlikely we'll see any rainfall. 

The Flemington surface has raced well all carnival, with both on and off speed horses having their chance.

I expect this fair pattern to continue on Saturday. 

Flemington Race 6 - VRC Sprint Classic 1200m (G1)

The Map

The speed appears genuine here, with both Nature Strip (9) and Fabergino (10) the most likely to take it up at a solid tempo.  

I doubt Nature Strip gets it all his own way out in front, as Fabergino (10) also possesses good tactical speed and can be right there if the rider chooses.

With a solid tempo predicted, those back in the field with cover will be well suited, including Santa Ana Lane (7), Graff (1) and Libertini (5), who are all genuine run-on profiles. 

Bivouac (6) is an interesting runner from a speed map angle and does have the ability to race forward or back. Expect him to tuck in just behind the leaders. 

Bivouac ($3.90) brings the strongest of form from The Everest last start, where he placed 2 of 12 behind Classique Legend.

He raced keenly through the mid-stages in that clash and may have finished closer if he had settled.

His Flemington straight track record over this distance is near perfect (2:1-1-0), and with a nice tow into it just behind the leaders he appears well suited. 

 Best Racing Tips

In a tough race, I have Bivouac on top due to his outstanding record at Flemington and the impressive lead-up form out of the Everest.

He should have every chance from a stalking position, just in behind the leaders.

Santa Ana Lane will get back to near last, however in a small field he should be much closer to the leaders when unleashing his customary late run at them.

If they go warp speed up front, expect him to be the one.   

Libertini has the talent and just needs to put it all together on the big day. She was heavily backed late ($9 into $6) to win the Everest, before finishing 8 of 12. That strong SP profile must be respected.  

Zoutori loves this track and distance (7:3-0-2) and maps well to race just in behind a genuine speed. He can present at just the right time for in-form rider Jamie Kah.

1^st  Bivouac $3.90

2^nd  Santa Ana Lane $9.00

3^rd  Libertini $7.00

4^th  Zoutori $11.00

Flemington Race 8 - Mackinnon Stakes 2000m (G1)

The Map

Expect Shout The Bar (10) to carve across from the outside gate, to take up the running at an even tempo. 

Dalasan (2), Fifty Stars (8) and Skyward (4) should all be prominent in the first half of the field.

The key chances of Arcadia Queen (5), Melody Belle (6) and Mugatoo (9) all typically race well back in the field, however if the tempo slackens expect them to take off early. 

 

The Favourite 

Arcadia Queen ($3.40) lowered the colours of Russian Camelot when winning the Caulfield Stakes two starts back. She then looked severely unsuited in the Cox Plate at her latest, when racing on the rain affected surface.

Back to a dry track here, I expect her to improve significantly.

If there is an even speed throughout, she should be charging late from a rearward position. 

 

 Best Racing Tips

Mugatoo put in a huge run in the Cox Plate (4 of 14) and possibly should have won, considering the torrid wide run he was forced to overcome. 

He races back in the field, however appears to have the ability to sprint well off moderately run races and will look the winner at some stage. 

Arcadia Queen is very classy and must be forgiven for her Cox Plate effort, when she wasn't suited by the wet track conditions.

Back to dry here, she can improve and should be charging home late. 

Mr Quickie was heavily backed late ($8 into $6.50) to win last start here in the Cantala, before nothing went to plan in the run.

He was a complete forgive run after being held up to finish 13 of 16 last time out. Can bounce back. 

Melody Belle would prefer wet, however is still very effective on a good surface (12:4-1-4).

She is yet another run-on profile who just needs a touch of tempo to be able to work into the race late. Include in broader exotics. 

 

1^st  Mugatoo $5.50

2^nd  Arcadia Queen $3.40

3^rd  Mr Quickie $11.00

4^th  Melody Belle $5.00

For a list of all the tipsters who have posted Flemington tips for Saturday's racing meet, checkout the dedicated page at theGreatTipOff.com.