28/11/20 Ascot Tips for the Winterbottom Stakes

This year's edition of the Winterbottom Stakes appears to have an abundance of early speed, with a number of noted front runners likely to carve out a blistering early sectional.

I expect this to suit one who is coming back from a recent run over 1400m, who appears to relish the tough runs and can be last man standing here. 

The betting action on race favourite Trekking will be very interesting late, and if he is firm in the market you should expect him to go very close. 

 Ascot Track Traits

The Ascot surface is currently rated a Good 4, with the rail out 5m for the entire circuit. 

Fine conditions are predicted in Perth for the remainder of the week and on Saturday. 

With the rail out expect the track to still race fair, however as always a close watch is advised early to determine any fast lanes or bias.  

The Map 

Expect this race to be run at a fast tempo being a Group 1 and with a field containing a number of natural speedsters. 

Look for Condor Heroes (7), Red Can Man (5), Indian Pacific (4) and Valour Road (3) to all apply pressure for the early lead. 

The midfield (or worse) run-on profiles appear suited, with Celebrity Queen (10) Stageman (9) and Trekking (11) all well suited whereby they can have the cold sit off a brutal tempo. 

 Racing Market Movers 

Race favourite Trekking remains rock solid at the $2.20 mark.

In a relatively quite early betting market, all other runners remain steady.

Key Runners 

#1 Trekking $2.20

Brings The Everest form where he ran his usual honest race, when rattling home to grab fourth. Then at his latest run, he charged home to just miss at Moonee Valley in the Manikato Stakes (2 of 9).

He is very honest and clearly looks classes above most off these.

It is late in the preparation now and there is a risk he has gone stale, however if he has not trained off he will be in the finish somewhere.  

#4 Valour Road $14

Has the tactical speed to race close to the lead, however given this could be a fast run race he may be unsuited.

He faded over 1100m last start here in the Colonel Reeves, and his recent racing indicates that the 1200m may find him out. 

I'd prefer him in a more moderately run event and am happy to risk him this time out.

#6 Vital Silver $19

I like the drop back from 1400m last start here in the Northerly Stakes, where he was tough at the end. 

The last start effort will have him cherry ripe for this, and in a fast run race he should be one of the strongest late.

Maps well from gate 8 and at the big price must go on top. The value runner.  

#7 Red Can Man $21

Was not too far off the smart ones in the Railway Stakes (1600m) last start, when finishing only 2 lengths off Inspirational Girl.

He is now on the quick back-up and drops way down in distance, which is a concern. 

I expect him to find a few of these too sharp over 1200m. 

#8 Stageman $11

Has been a huge tip to win this for a number of months now and does have a nice run-on profile which should suit. 

He is likely to travel midfield with cover and off a hot speed, can be peeling at just the right time.

Include in everything.  

#12 Indian Pacific $7.50

Loves to lead and grind them all into the ground and I expect him to be the one out of the speed horses to "lead at all costs"

He may give punters some hope with a good kick at the 100m mark, however don't be surprised to see him capitulate shortly after. No. 

#13 Elite Street $16

Is shooting for the hat-trick of wins and comes via some much weaker races, where I doubt the form will hold up for this Group 1 event.

Completely outclassed coming out of Rating 72 handicaps. Avoid. 

#16 Celebrity Queen $9

Looks well suited to run home well off the predicted hot tempo.

She has the Grant and Alana Williams polish which is highly regarded, and if they are entering here she must going very well. 

Last start she won the Colonel Reeves when darting through late, and if she holds form expect her to go very close.      

Of The Others

#14 Flirtini is only second-up here and at this stage of the prep, she can be lethal (4:2-1-0).

I am very wary of this stable and she could get out to a ridiculous price ($30+), where it would be worth having an interest.    

For a list of all the tipsters who have posted Ascot tips for Saturday's racing meet, checkout the dedicated page at theGreatTipOff.com.