21/11/20 Ascot Tips for the Railway Stakes & WA Guineas
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- Author: James BeesonNov 19, 2020 04:15 PM
- Photo: AAP
Perth Plunder
Group 1 racing moves to Perth this week, with the Railway Stakes set to provide punters with an excellent betting opportunity.
The main event is well supported by the Group 2 WA Guineas, where the good quality Perth three-year-old's do battle.
In the big one, I am with a seasoned mare who won a big WA Group 1 around this time last year and who looks cherry ripe for this.
For the feature three-year-old event, I have found one who should find plenty of clean air in the moving line.
Track Conditions
The Ascot track is currently rated a Soft 5, with the rail out 3m for the entire circuit.
Fine conditions are expected for the remainder of the week and on race day.
With recent rain and plenty of racing at the track over the past few weeks, a close watch is advised on the earlier races to determine any fast lanes or bias.
Ascot Race 6 - WA Guineas 1600m (G2)
The Map 
A tricky speed map here, with any number of these three-year-old's able to push forward in search of the on-speed positions.
Panzdown (2) won't be wasting the good draw, and he has the best chance of leading.
Early pressure can also come from Phanta (8), First Law (7) and Gemmas Son (13).
I expect them to roll along at a good clip, which should give most running positions their chance with a possible slight advantage for midfield or worse run-on profiles.
The Favourite
Gemma's Son ($5.00) will need to work from the wide draw if they decide to press forward, and is a big risk of being posted wide throughout.
I can't see him getting much shorter than the current price due to the ugly speed map and I suspect that we are currently trading at rock-bottom odds.
He has performed well at stakes level in his past two starts and did grind home well at his latest, when finishing 4 of 11 in the Lee Steere Stakes.
He certainly would not shock, however I believe we will shop better close to start time.
Best Racing Tips 
Dom To Shoot gets the gun run in transit here, and should find a position midfield in the running line.
I expect horses racing in the moving line to hold an advantage, as those on the rail may strike traffic if the leaders go hard.
Magical Dream has the Bob Peters "secret sauce". Although this may compress the price to a degree, she must be included based on the strong stakes level performances at her past three including a win in the Belgravia Stakes.
She looks sharp and could pick them all up late from a rearward position.
Patrick Carbery is booked to ride Brave Angel, which is an excellent lead as he is often "the money rider".
She maps well from gate 6 and is from the big-betting Simon Miller yard. A late move in betting would suggest she goes close. Watch the market late.
Watch Me Dance has a last start win at this track and distance (1600m), which can be all-important.
There's no doubt she will run the trip, and could be one of the strongest late if she has luck weaving a passage through the ruck. Include.
1st Dom To Shoot
2nd Magical Dream
3rd Brave Angel
4th Watch Me Dance
Ascot Race 8 - Railway Stakes 1600m (G1)
The Map
Although drawn wide, I expect Gailo Chop (20) and Too Close The Sun (16) to apply their preferred tactics and press forward.
Great Shot (3) also typically shows speed and his draw should allow him to punch up into the firing line early.
Expect the tempo to be genuine, and the midfield or worse profiles to hold an advantage off a hot speed here.
The Favourite
Inspirational Girl ($3.80) is highly talented, but is yet to be tested beyond Group 3 level.
This will be a big challenge and she may well be up to it as this year's race does lack depth, with a lack of the East Coast "big guns".
William Pike will compress the price artificially due to his popularity, however she has the runs on the board (has won 6 of her past 7) and may well be too good in any case.
Best Racing Tips
Red Can Man was only just collared late (2 of 11) here last start in the Lee Steere Stakes, which looks the right form-line for this race.
I expect a change of tactics and for him to find a moving line position just in behind the speed. Ridden a touch colder he can deliver.
Inspirational Girl has the great record (10:8-1-1) and looks primed to put in a big performance at her Group 1 debut.
This is such a weak Group 1 event that I am convinced she won't find the class an issue. She will look the winner at some stage.
Kay Cee is a proven Group 1 performer having won her only start in this grade. She is in white-hot form and arrives via the Lee Steere stakes, where she won well.
Expect her to peak up again and is very competitive here.
Truly Great has won his past four starts and is the perfect "get-back, run-on" profile for this.
Don't be concerned with the wide gate (barrier 18), as he will be dragged back in any case.
Expect him to be the one storming home over the top late.
1st Red Can Man
2nd Inspirational Girl
3rd Kay Cee
4th Truly Great
For a list of all the tipsters who have posted Ascot tips for Saturday's racing meet, checkout the dedicated page at theGreatTipOff.com.
