14/10/20 Best bets for The Hunter & Spring Stakes
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- Author: Joshua ReedNov 12, 2020 01:22 PM
- Photo: AAP
Novacastrians turn it on
With the Everest Carnival in the rear-view mirror, Newcastle takes centre stage in NSW this Saturday for the $1 million 'The Hunter' contested over 1300m.
Newcastle boasts one of the best tracks in Australia with excellent drainage and a racing surface which gives all runners a fair chance.
Punters have a nine-race card to dissect, with the main event well supported by the Group 3 Spring Stakes for the three year old's.
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Track Conditions
Newcastle is in mint condition ahead of their feature day, with fine weather forecast in the lead up which will see us racing on a Good 4.
Based on previous meetings here, all runners will be given a chance across the spacious track.
Newcastle Race 6 - NJC Spring Stakes 1600m (G3)
The Map 
There is very little pace in this race and the two favourites should be able to dictate the race from out in front.
Ellsberg (1) will stroll to the front from the inside, with Perfect Radiance (6) either sitting outside of him or just in behind.
Look for The Elanora (2) and Real Peace (3) to kick up and sit behind them from ideal draws.
Those horses in the outside barriers such as High Supremacy (7), Kukeracha (8), Shaddy (9), Namazu (10), Luminoso (11) and Red Stiletto (12) will sort themselves out in midfield.
I expect Leeward (4) to settle at the rear along with Obvious Step (5).
The Favourite 
Expect the favourites to dictate proceedings here, with Perfect Radiance ($3.00) attracing plenty of support early.
The Snitzel filly ran well last start against the older horses at Randwick. In that clash, she had to be directed to the rail by Avdulla to get clear air before hitting the line well to finish second.
I doubt she was suited to the Soft track that day.
Look for them to trail the leader here and be right in the mix when hitting the straight, but I do question her tenacity. Both of her victories on Good tracks were over sprint trips and she was hardly challenged in each.
I expect her to run well, but she won't be the way I play.
Analysis and Tips 
I really like the Spill The Beans colt from the Gerald Ryan camp.
Ellsberg ($5.00) was impressive when winning on debut at Warwick Farm, beating home Selburose, Easifar and Let Me Think over 1300m. All three of those horses either went on to win or finish second in their following run.
He then stepped to 1400m on a Heavy Rosehill track, where he fought on well to place second but I think he prefers a firmer footing.
Something he showed me in both of those races was an ability to be clearly headed and then fight back. He was drawn into a dog fight in his last run and knuckled down to hit the line nicely.
He'll get a nice soft lead and easy sectionals, and he will be fighting fit here third-up.
Look for Perfect Radiance to head him in the straight, but the colt will love the battle and you can expect him to fight her off for a win.
Newcastle Race 7 - The Hunter 1300m
The Map
Unlike the prior race, this clash has plenty of speed engaged.
Cuba (17) will head forward along with Sweet Deal (6).
I expect Special Reward (4) to take the trail behind them and Gaulois (10) to carve across from the wide draw and slot in.
Chief Ironside (9), Asiago (16), Redouble (15) and El Dorado Dreaming (12) will settle in the midfield area.
It will be interesting to see where they attempt to put Trumbull (13) jumping from the wide barrier. I expect to see him settle either midfield or a touch better.
The remaining runners will settle at the rear of the field.
The Favourite
Trumbull ($4.60) is the favourite here in a wide open race.
He is coming off a win in the Sydney Stakes, after what was a well timed run by Tommy Berry.
Despite dropping in grade here, he has a bit against him including the wide gate and the weight he's giving away to some key rivals.
It's going to take a peach from Tommy Berry here, mixed with a hope that the others run into trouble.
Analysis and Tips
Playing around two back markers here, who look nicely placed but will need luck.
Ranier ($6.50) could sit further forward from the draw if he pleases and drops a handy 4.5kg from his last run.
He will lead the Godolphin army in their bid to go back-to-back in The Hunter and I believe he will go very close.
His first-up run in the Theo Marks was brilliant, hitting the line nicely behind Wild Planet and Funstar who would be odds-on pops here.
Last start he was very brave, but I think they knew it would be tough to win on the Soft going carrying 62kg. He finished within 2.4 lengths of stablemate Criaderas in that clash, who carried 10kg less!
He meets Cuba ($10.00) 2.5kg better at the weights and is well suited on a Good track.
I think Signore Fox ($11.00) is a good knockout chance here.
He ran well in the Sydney Stakes, finishing within 1.7 lengths of the winner and rival in this race, Trumbull. He meets the Kim Waugh trained galloper 3kg better off for this clash.
Although the draw isn't ideal from the inside, he loves a Good track, races well in Newcastle and will appreciate the 1300m.
He's a nice each-way play in the big one and should be included in all exotics.
