Flemington Tips: Empire Rose Stakes 2018

A high quality group of fillies and mares have assembled here in an intriguing betting affair, where the Thousand Guineas winner Amphitrite is likely to jump favourite.

Many of these have been up for a very long time now and this deep stage of the prep can throw up some interesting results. However as always, we have to respect recent winning form and trust these runners are not yet "over the top".

I've settled on one that will race back in the field and should arrive on the line in the nick of time. 

 Race Flemington Track Traits

Flemington is currently rated a Good 4 with the rail in the true position for the entire circuit and fine conditions predicted for Saturday.

With the rail in the true, expect both on pace and run on profiles to get their chance over the 1600m. As always, it is worth watching early races, as on occasion the Flemington rail can be on fire, giving a significant advantage to horses racing on, or close to it. 

 Racing Market Movers

There have been no significant moves in early betting, aside from small interest seen for Shillelagh who has firmed from $8.50 into $7.50, and Oohood into $8 from $9.

 Key Runners

#1 I Am A Star  $10 > $13

Has led and dictated at her past two outings when getting away with murder up front to win on both occasions.

Up in grade and ridden upside down. No.

#2 Invincibella  $7.50 > $10

On her day has been one of the most dynamic mares this Spring, where two back she brained a good quality field in the Group 2 Blazer Stakes at Flemington.

At her latest outing they just went far too slow for her when Shumookh crawled in front and kicked away. She was still brave enough to run second on that occasion.

Love her speed map profile from gate 12 where she can cruise across to find a running line midfield. From there expert her to simply peel wide and run home over the top of them all. Must go on top.

#3 Shillelagh  $8.50 > $7.50 

Always a bridesmaid never a bride, and that looks likely to continue here.

She is a big chance of getting buried well back along the inside, only to see daylight when it is all over. Last start was okay when 4 of 18 in the Toorak behind Land Of Plenty, however she appeared to have her chance.

Granted this is an easier assignment, however could not get warm about the current $7.50 in betting. Expect a dramatic market drift. No.

#5 Aloisia  $8.50 > $9

Is only third-up here which makes her much fresher than many of these. That could be telling as she did improve significantly second-up in the Group 2 Tristarc and who knows how much more is to come here for this run.

Love that she is less exposed than most of her opposition, and the stable could have timed it to perfection.

May surprise a few judges at odds.   

#9 Shumookh  $9.50 

Will lead and is a great chance of dictating to them all again following a dominant on-speed display at Caulfield in the Tristarc when she ran away from them all.

From gate 7, Tim Clark will carve across and control it for a long way.

They may try to take her on early and that is why I am slightly leaning towards a run-on profile, however expect her to be right there in the finish. Top hope. 

#13 Oohood $9 > $8 

Was a huge run against the boys in the Caulfield Guineas where she ran on strongly to grab third.

She oozes quality and deserves another big scalp this prep after breaking her maiden in the Group 1 Flight Stakes at Randwick two starts back.

Slight question mark she is rapidly approaching the "over the top" period in her preparation, however on recent runs she must be included in everything. Yes.

#15 Amphitrite  $4.60 > $4.80

Brained them in the Thousand Guineas last start and was also very dominant the start before in the Edward Manifold. No reason the winning form can't continue here and she certainly deserves to be hard in the market.

Late money will tell us if she is still up for it after a long campaign. If the money comes in late betting, it would pay to follow. Huge threat. 

Of The Others

None preferred. 

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