Flemington Racing: Kennedy Mile Preview 2018

The Kennedy Mile (formerly known as the Emirates Stakes) is one of the nation's biggest mile races and typically throws up a challenging contest for punters to assess.

This year's edition features a great mix of youth and experience and I have settled on one that follows a dominant last start win, when heavily backed throughout betting.

The wide open spaces of Flemington will provide a perfect setting for any speed profiles to prosper, given luck. 

 Flemington Track Traits

Flemington is currently rated a Good 4 with the rail in the true position the entire circuit and fine conditions predicted for Saturday.

Over the 1600m distance and with the rail in the true, expect both on-pace and run-on profiles to get their chance.

As always, it is worth watching early races, as on occasion the Flemington rail can be on fire, giving a significant advantage to horses racing on or close to it. 

 Racing Market Movers

Race favourite Land Of Plenty is on the drift in early betting, softening from an opening quote of $4.20 to $4.60. At longer odds, Best Of Days has been supported $13 into $11.

 Key Runners

#1 Hartnell $6.50

Old warrior who still has big Group 1 races in him, as shown when he won the Epsom at Randwick two back and running second in the Toorak last start.

He carried plenty of weight in both and is again asked to do that here as top-weight.

This may be telling after a number of huge runs this time in and expect him to feel the pinch of an arduous campaign this prep.

Would be very close to being over the top and is one to avoid this week. No. 

#2 Le Romain $10

Ran well to finish 4 of 12 in the Everest last start when he took on the nation's best sprinters over 1200m.

He has to jump sharply in distance for this however he has won over the mile here at Flemington previously.

The draw in gate 7 suits and from there, J Mac can cruise across and find cover close to speed.

With any rain he would be awfully hard to beat, however he is still dynamic enough to challenge these on a dry surface.

From a gun position in the run, he will be right in the finish. Top hope. 

#4 Land Of Plenty $4.20 > $4.60

Has a strong SP profile, where he was backed off the map in his past few in both early betting and late on the day.

He showed his true colours last start when sitting wide and cruising up to them with ease, to run away with it in the Group 1 Toorak.

It was an advantage to be wide and sweeping late on that occasion, however with any luck here from a mid draw, he is again the one to beat.

Will truck along midfield in the running line and must go on top. Yes.  

#8 Noire #12  

The Waller stable had big wraps on her going into the Toorak following an outstanding run when winning the Shannon at Rosehill.

Whilst she wasn't hopeless last start when 7 of 18, you would have liked to have seen more.

Expect the mile to be too far for her and this set-up does not present the best opportunity to show her brilliance. No.  

#11 Cliff's Edge $8

Was a big tip and backed accordingly at Moonee Valley last start, when he fought bravely to prevail in the Group 2 Crystal Mile.

This is much harder, however he should find the lead or race outside it, which may suit if they can control it up front.

Has no weight and can keep kicking for a long way. Leading chance. 

#16 Peaceful State $9.50 

Is one of Weiry's favourites and went very close first-up when running second to the smart Land Of Plenty (top pick here).

I'm convinced he has a good one in him and he does get to the mile for the fist time this prep which will suit (5:1-2-0).

Draws beautifully in gate 2 and can suck up in behind for the entire trip before looking for clean air.

Will need some luck to extricate, but is right in this and can win at a good price.

#18 Iconoclasm $8

Loves to race on or near speed, however that looks pure suicide from the wide draw in gate 16 here.

He will have to make a significant leap in class, coming up to Group 1 level from the last start win in non-stakes grade, as well as a win at listed level two starts back.

The draw and class factor are far too much to overcome here. No.

Of The Others

#17 Best Of Days (emergency) is likely to sneak into the field and going off the last start win in the Gourp 3 Coongy over 2000m, will be one of the strongest late here over 2000m.

If they go warp speed he is the one coming over the top.