Lay Betting Tips: who to avoid on the punt 26/10/24

We nailed our lays last week with both Front Page and Pride of Jenni crumbling at their short quotes.

This week’s lay selections focus on the bumper Cox Plate Day card, where we have identified two warm favourites that appear over-bet.

Midway through the card, there is a strong recency bias for a horse that has won his past two starts, however must contend with his first look at Moonee Valley.

Whilst in the big one, I am against the Japanese raider who did not impress in his Tuesday track gallop and is sure to be over-bet in combined world pool markets.

Horse Racing Lays on Saturday

Moonee Valley Race 5 #4 Kingswood $2.35

Kingswood looks over-bet here, following back-to-back wins and the recency bias from connections landing big betting plunges.

However, he faces a stronger field here with several well-performed Group horses who should provide a stern test.

This will be his first time racing at Moonee Valley and while he handled the tight Caulfield circuit last time, the adjustment to this track may still be a challenge.

Starting from gate 1, it’s likely they'll try to push forward and make use of the favourable draw.

However several other runners will likely have similar tactics, wanting to be in the front half which could force Kingswood to absorb some early pressure.

The current price is extremely poor value, making him an excellent risk to avoid on the big Cox Plate Day card.

Moonee Valley Race 9 #2 Prognosis $3.40

I’m not backing the Japanese raider Prognosis in this race, as he faces a strong local contingent in a year where Australian-based runners seem to have good depth.

He has proven to be a high-risk starter, often slow out of the gates, and could find himself disadvantaged from the start if he misses the jump by two lengths.

In a Group 1 race, this could be costly.

Furthermore, his gallop on Tuesday morning at The Valley appeared lacklustre during Breakfast with the Stars.

He had to be scrubbed along and ridden hard through the line while others looked more polished, comfortably going through their paces.

While the market may shift closer to the race, any late firming could be misleading, especially in world pools where Hong Kong recreational money may back him.

For me, he’s a lay.

Access more betting tips for Saturday racing here.