Lay Betting Tips: who to avoid on the punt 2/11/24

This week’s lay selections focus on two runners that are having runs beyond their “target races” and likely on the way down.

Early on a huge day at Flemington a hype runner who is coming out of a Caulfield Guineas run when blessed, looks vulnerable.

While at Rosehill the Everest Champ is going to the well one too many times in my opinion!

Horse Racing Lays on Saturday

Flemington Race 1 #1 Feroce $2.00

Could not have been more blessed in the Caulfield Guineas where he sat in behind the leaders and got the perfect run for the entire trip.

No doubt this is easier however with a completely different set-up here, he could be left exposed and chasing for a significant period.

The market has overreacted to the Caulfield Guineas effort where he placed 2nd of 11 and that would no doubt have been the grand final run that he was set for.

There is a huge chance he is over the top now and on the way down and although in a weaker race here, he looks an excellent risk in this.

Lay.

Rosehill Race 7 #3 Bella Nipotina $2.60

Will be over the top now following plenty of recent racing and this appears the ideal time to be taking her on, post the Everest “grand final” run where she would have been set to peak.

The recency bias of the big last-start win will be fresh in the minds of all mug punters and this will allow bookmakers to keep her artificially short all throughout betting.

She is less suited around Rosehill where her run-on profile is slightly blunted by how the track can typically play.

She could find herself well back in this field and in plenty of traffic, where it is typically a challenge to get home over the top at the venue.

Avoid.

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