23/10/21 Moonee Valley Tips for the Manikato Stakes

This year's Manikato Stakes features the typical older sprinters taking on a few of the highly rated 3YO's, which makes for a fascinating clash at The Valley on Friday night.

I am against the 3YO's on this occasion and believe the older more seasoned campaigners will come out on top.

Expect there to be a warp-speed tempo early, with running position the key. Those with cover just in behind or in the moving line will hold all the aces. 

 Moonee Valley Track Traits

The Moonee Valley surface is currently rated a Good 4, with the rail in the True position for the entire circuit on Friday night.

Some showers are predicted in Melbourne on race day. 

With the rail situated in the True position, expect both on and off speed profiles to have their chance.

Beware however, given leader bias can appear around Moonee Valley in any rail position.

Punters should pay close attention to the early races for any indication of fast lanes and track bias

The Map

This race should be a run at a fast tempo, with a few noted front-runners very keen to lead.

Expect Savatoxl, Jonker and Crystal Bound all to rush forward and set up a good speed throughout. 

Given a genuine tempo, the midfield profiles or those just in behind appear best suited here.  

 Racing Market Movers

Lombardo has been the one best supported in early betting, and is $6 into $5. 

All other runners remain steady.

 Key Runners

#2 Jonker $9.50

Pure speedster who wasn't suited by the Flemington straight two starts back, and then was slow away last time out in the Premiere Stakes.

Although this is a Group 1, it looks weaker than what he faced in that recent hit-out at Randwick. 

If he jumps well, look for him to take up his more preferred close to speed position and he could be the big improver here. 

#4 Savatoxl $4.60

Also has speed to burn and is likely to challenge Jonker for the lead. 

He was excellent winning last start at Caulfield in Group 2 grade, where he was very brave on a hot tempo.

Could easily lead them in a merry dance and just hold on late!

#5 Express Pass $20

Has a big run in him and given luck here and the right tow into it, expect him to be competitive.

The 5 of 14 finish in the Bobbie Lewis at Flemington was sound, where he was tightened for room at the 400m and had some excuses. 

He is likely to get back and will have to weave a passage again, hence I've left him out of my numbers.

However, a win certainly would not shock.

#6 Lombardo $6.00 > $5.00

Is charging through the grades and won well last time out at Caulfield, in what was his first try in Stakes class.

From gate 3, they can race close to speed or tuck in just behind which should make for an economical run.

This is his Group 1 debut, however I must concede he does look right up to it. Top hope. 

#7 Away Game $26

Looks well below her best now and will attract plenty of mug money. No. 

#8 Bella Nipotina $11

Handy mare who was only 0.3 lengths off Savatoxl last start in the Schilaci at Caulfield, when placing 3 of 7.

I like her a lot. Although many believe the inside draw is death at the Valley over these sprint trips, she has the tactical speed to boot up and sit just in behind.

John Allen is a strong rider and will have the brute force to punch her through the gaps as needed. Goes on top. 

#9 Swats That $19

The Corstens yard have a huge opinion of her and were on the hunt for an Everest invite early this prep.

Not all has gone to plan, however she has had genuine excuses (unsuitable draw/deep race), and this looks a touch weaker than last time out in the Moir Stakes.

If she can find the moving line with cover, expect her to have plenty to offer.

#10 La Mexicana $20

High class mare who will also put herself right there close to speed, to make her own luck.

She has been outstanding all prep and although she has not won, the runs have been full of merit. 

Expect her to sit outside the speed or take a trail one pair back. Include in broader bet types. 

Is from the in-form Godolphin yard who won the Guineas (Anamoe) and now look to continue the Melbourne success here.

He is a 3YO colt taking on the older horses in this. I doubt this season's 3YO crop will measure up in this grade over the sprint trips.

With gun rider Craig Williams to steer, he should have every chance. 

#12 Sneaky Five $7.50

Another 3YO and a very interesting runner who is undefeated in all 3 career starts.

Her  last start win in Group 3 level at Caulfield was sound, however I expect she could be a touch below a few of the older more experienced runners line up here. No.

#13 Crystal Bound $12

Maher/Eustace 3YO who has blasted onto the scene with a huge debut win at this track, before performing well on each outing since. 

She fought hard to only just miss behind Sneaky Five last start and does appear to be another runner that will struggle to topple the older horses. No.

Of The Others

#1 Streets Of Avalon is classy and has the ability to ride a hot speed. He looks big odds ($31) here, and is not out of it.