16/10/21 Tips for the Caulfield Cup

The 2021 Caulfield Cup has assembled a high quality field of top class staying stars, with both Incentivise and Delphi attracting plenty of interest. 

The wide draw (gate 20) poses some interesting questions for Incentivise and connections. They will be aware that going back from this tricky barrier at Caulfield is fraught with danger, and against his natural racing pattern. 

I am happy to trust Damien Oliver here with a horse he has put himself through plenty of pain to ride. 

The boom horse is sure to be popular, however I'm happy to risk on this occasion.

 Caulfield Track Traits

The Caulfield surface is currently rated a Soft 6, with the rail in the True the entire circuit.

With the rail in the True, expect both on and off speed profiles to have their chance. However, leader bias can still appear around Caulfield in any rail position.

The Map

This race should be a run at a genuine tempo, with most riders keen to find a position before entering the first turn.

Expect Incentivise, Quick Thinker and Homesman to all rush forward and set up a good speed throughout. 

Given a genuine tempo, the midfield profiles appear best suited here.  

 Racing Market Movers

She's Ideel has been the one best supported early, and is $61 into $34 in early betting. 

Race favourite Incentivise remains steady around the $2.60 mark, however is sure to attract plenty of recreational support. 

 Key Runners

#2 Incentivise $2.60

The boom could not be bigger on this highly talented galloper, however I feel he is a good risk here.

He will be burning plenty of fuel from the horror draw in gate 20 and I feel the only option for them is to press forward and "hope" to find the top or sit outside lead.

It will take a mighty effort whichever way you break it down, and at the poison price ($2.50) I simply cannot have for the win. 

#3 Explosive Jack $15

Last season's Derby Hero (he won 3), who will clearly stay all day and could be the "smokey" in this.

He would be getting fitter with every run and now out to a preferred trip, should be well suited.

The Maher/Eustace stable are the masters of setting up their stayers, and you can expect him to be cherry ripe on the day. Watch betting late.  

#4 The Chosen One $13

Ran a huge race in the Herbert Power to place 2 of 11 behind the smart Delphi and could be peaking at just the right time for this. 

Damian Lane sticks and he has to be some chance given the right run, especially if they go warp speed up front. 

He is clearly a touch below the top-liners here and expect the price to drift as we approach start time.  

#10 Delphi $8.00

Was backed off the map last week here when Olly took off and gave nothing else a chance.

He has tactical speed and can settle anywhere they choose in the run. Expect they can be midfield with cover and receive the good tow in.

The rider has chosen to put himself through hell to waste down to the featherweight 52.5kg and that says it all. Goes on top. 

#12 Montefilia $16

Master trainer David Payne knows exactly what he is doing here, where this would have been the target race all along.

She was excellent last start winning the G1 Metropolitan  last start at Randwick, and the different formlines could work in her favour.

Expect her to be rushing home at them all late. Include. 

#15 Young Werther $9.50

Looked as though he would run down Incentivise last start, before that horse gave a good kick to prevail.

He is clearly up to winning and has more in his favour this time out, with a soft draw (gate 8) and the favourite possibly working overtime.

Expect he is the one with the last shot at them and can come with a big run to go very close. Yes. 

#16 Nonconformist $12

Was not far off Probabeel and did beat home Zaaki in the Group 1 Might And Power here at Caulfield last start.

It was a small field last start and I feel back to more typical race conditions here, he will be a touch below a few of these. No.

#17 Duais $17

Won the Coongy at this track on Wednesday and the quick back up can be the winning move.

He is stacked with ability and the young trainer Edward Cummings hungry for success. 

I expect he could be the forgotten horse and has not done a thing wrong! A win would not surprise. 

#7 Persan will stay all day and is from the right camp (Maher /Eustace). 

He gets out to a distance that suits now, and could be the big improver at a price. Watch betting!