13/10/21 Caulfield Tips & Best Bets for the Thousand Guineas

The Group 1 Thousand Guineas is a real test for the fillies, where many of the runners are untried at the distance.

Lining up the form-lines of horses who have already won at 1600m or above is a tricky part of the equation also.

I am with one who had a recent stable change and ran a belter in the Group 1 Flight Stakes, after tearing it up in Queensland.

 Caulfield Track Traits

The Caulfield surface is currently rated a Good 4, with the rail out 9m for the entire circuit. 

With the rail out and showers expected in the middle of the day, it will pay to watch how the track plays in the middle part of the card. Don't be suprised to see riders steering away from the rail come race time.

Expect runners closer to the speed to hold an advantage early in the program.

 Racing Market Movers

The most notable move in early markets has been for Hinged, who has been backed from $4.80 into $4.20.  Zouzarella has been solid at the $4.60 quote.

 Key Runners

#1 Swift Witness $12

Led them up in the Flight Stakes and that race does look to be a strong guide.

She has been over run at her past two starts, so just needs to get across the field from gate 12 without having to do too much work.

The others might just finish over the top of her again.

#2 Hinged $4.20

Ran enormous in the Group 1 Flight Stakes, chasing hard from midfield before going down by a neck.

The filly had won 5 of her 7 races in Queensland under the tutelage of Michael Nolan, before being transferred to the strong Chris Waller stable for her past couple.

She was very strong at her last win in Brisbane, after racing on pace before surging clear to win by 3.75 lengths. That victory was over 1615m so is proven at the trip.

This is her first try going anti-clockwise, so that would be the only question mark on her.

#3 Elusive Express $10

Won the Group 2 Edward Manifold after settling fourth and fifth in the run.

She finished the best of the runners and proved herself at this distance.

Amphitrite in 2018 is the only recent winner from that race to complete the Thousand Guineas double, however she is certainly a winning chance. 

#4 Bon's A Pearla $18

Finished powerfully to score at this track over 1400M last start and is definitely over the odds.

It was a similar win at Sandown the start prior over that distance also.

The draw is against her out in barrier 13 as she will need to rely on getting a good trail into the race.

She is stepping up to this trip for the first time though if she is only a couple of lengths off them at the 200M, she could be the blowout.  

#6 Zouzarella $4.60

Gets back in her races and finishes off well, however she has drawn well in gate 2 so may be ridden closer this time.

She worked home well from the rear last start, though Queen Of Dubai gave a strong kick and she had every chance to reel her in.

She has the inform Brett Prebble on board and settling her midfield this time might just be the difference. 

She could be a big improver out to a trip with the right run.

#8 Queen Of Dubai $5.50

Waterhouse/Bott s are always a big watch, and she gave a bold display from the top in her last start win.

Expect her to be thereabouts in the straight and whether she can stave off her rivals, is what it will get down to. 

#10 Barb Raider $5.50

By Rebel Raider, she is a stayer in the maker.

She has won her past couple at 1600M and 1800M and is pretty tough when challenged. An Each way hope.

#13 Fortunate Kiss $18

Didn’t get a lot of racing room in the straight behind Queen Of Dubai.

May show improvement up in distance and her Dad, Divine Prophet, won the 2016 Caulfield Guineas which will give her connections confidence going into this race.

One for the multiples. 

Of The Others

#11 Cuban Link $41 hasn’t put a foot wrong winning her past two after a second on debut, though this is a big rise in grade for her.