24/10/20 Moonee Valley tips and best bets
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- Author: Lewis WilloughbyOct 22, 2020 12:26 PM
- Photo: AAP
Best Plays for Cox Plate Day
Moonee Valley plays host to the 100th running of the Cox Plate this Saturday.
The race is etched in the history of racing in this country, and the centennial event of the should prove to be a cracking edition.
The track is currently rated a Good 4 as of Thursday, but there is a high chance of rain on both Friday and Saturday.
If it comes as predicted, we could be looking at a Soft 7 or thereabouts so definitely look for horses who can run well with the sting out of the ground.
The rail is true for the entire circuit and at this set-up, expect it to play fairly. If the track becomes wet however, a bias could emerge in the outside lanes.
Moonee Valley Race 3 Tip #7 Bella Nipotina $5.00
I'm keen to be with this three-year-old filly from the Hayes & Dabernig camp here, in what looks to be a good edition of the Group 3 Red Anchor Stakes.
Her form so far this prep has been much stronger than it reads on paper. She was a dominant Group 3 winner fresh at Caulfield, after beating some talented horses by over 2 lengths.
She then went to the Group 1 Moir Stakes and raced three wide without cover, before dropping out to run last.
That might have left her a touch flat for her last start effort, although she wasn't disgraced when finishing third behind the highly talented Swats That over 1200m.
She's rock hard fit fourth-up here and at the peak of her prep. From barrier 6, look for her to be sitting outside the leader for a very good run.
She is proven on the wet going having won on a Soft 6 when fresh, and she also has a second place behind Prime Star on a Heavy 9 at Warwick Farm which is a great form-line.
The filly is yet to win at this trip, but she can handle the tight turns of The Valley and now with the added fitness, expect her to see out the 1200m.
The early market favourite Portland Sky looks to map terribly from barrier 1, given he's not a quick beginner and is at high risk of being caught in an awkward spot.
I have Bella Nipotina marked at around that $3.00 quote and I expect her to shorten quite heavily in the market. Looks a good bet for me.
Moonee Valley Race 6 Tip #6 Young Werther $2.50
Really keen on Young Werther here, who was an absolute certainty beaten behind Khoekhoe last start in the Super Impose over 1800m at Flemington.
He settled in a lovely midfield position with cover during the run. However as they all started to fan out across the track on the turn, Damien Oliver was left with absolutely nowhere to go with a wall of horses in front him.
He wanted to lay in badly when trying to take runs to the inside of horses. When he finally knuckled down showing great acceleration over the last 150m, hitting the line impressively.
He ran 11.75 seconds for the final 200m, which was the quickest of the entire race by nearly 2 lengths. When a stayer is able to reel off this sectional in a stop-start run, it's a very strong signal that he is a quality horse.
Out to 2040m now third up and the winkers go on, which hopefully stops him from wandering about under pressure.
Expect him to map nicely from midfield once again and with even luck this time, I think he can easily reverse the result.
Expect him to get back into the winner's stall.
